What do with Sunday’s disturbance?


1. First let’s hit on the next few days Friday and Saturday should be mostly sunny with  more clouds and a slight shower chance Friday over the far eastern portion of the state. Highs on Friday and Saturday should range from the mid 60’s to mid 70’s across the region with warmer temps on Friday I’m expecting lows in the 50’s.

2. On Sunday we once again have some model disagreement the ECMWF is increasing amplification  of the jet by Sunday with an approaching upper level disturbance which slows and develops this system while the GFS is moving this system east very rapidly to our north. The ECMWF solution would have lows in the upper 40’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s with rain showers while the GFS solution would be relativity dry and highs in the 60’s. Right now my thinking is more toward the ECMWF than GFS as the NAM is trending in that direction. Right now lows in the upper 40’s and highs near 60 with a chance for showers by Sunday morning seems reasonable. As I hinted at yesterday this system may cut-off over the region leading to a few more days of clouds and showers for next week.

Let’s take a look at the NAM, GFS comparison



Notice how the nam is stronger and more closed off and less progressive than the gfs thus it’s slower moving and stronger at the surface. A common bias with the GFS is that it’s to fast with the flow on occasions, we’ll see if that the case this time.


One Response to “What do with Sunday’s disturbance?”

  1. mitchg Says:

    notes for today

    1. does the low ending up forming to our east, still think scattered rain showers are in the works from late-sat into early next week, the 540 line comes close but it’s a miss in terms of other precip types.

    2. do we instead clear out and get frost over the lou and bwg suburbs???

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