Storm gets going to our east

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1. Well the excessive rainfall threat has gone by the wayside. With this system not organizing untill it’s east of Kentucky the excessive rains will continue to be confined to the south and mid-atlantic states with the surface low pressure moving up the Appalachian mountains. This is a set-up folks we will be wanting in winter the southeast shift in track with the colder temps and n flow over KY.  For us this means low clouds and light showers over the next few days with the n flow highs should be near 70 Tuesday and Wednesday with a large range across the region with lows in the mid 50’s.

2. This moisture plume will be continue to stream into the east coast throughout the week with a trough becoming established over the Ohio valley As clipper mania could start.

the question is why this pattern change????

teleconnections…

PNA

AO

+ PNA and – AO, remember what a role the -AO played last winter.

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4 Responses to “Storm gets going to our east”

  1. Seth Says:

    I looked at the CFS model recently. I’m not sure if I’m reading it right but it seems to think October will be cool and dry and then November more wet.
    Do you also anticipate a change for the “wetter” coming this November or earlier?

  2. MarkLex Says:

    Hey Mitch

    Question. Why would this be the setup we want to see? We have had little to no moisture here in central KY from this? IF it were winter, it wouldn’t snow without the moisture. Am I missing something here?

  3. mitchg Says:

    the next few weeks should be cool then followed by a warm up by mid oct.

    good question mark this would have been a bust where a few inches of snow forecasted and little happened likely due to thunderstorms taking away moisture transport into the region. A source of error in the forecast i should have seen.

    Also the critical anylisis of a mostly suny forecast for bwg several days ago turned out to be in fault as at times it was mostly sunny in bwg today.

    Tommorow I will show the 12 canadina solution if a forecaster just looks at the gfs and euro no rain is in the cards for friday, the 12z cmc has rain bands from nicole in the region as it phases with a strong great lakes trough the grand finale on this run is mositure from nicole producing snow showers in the great lakes. we shall see.

  4. mitchg Says:

    i should add i think the cmc will go to the rest of the modeling.

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