pattern change coming in stages

1. today we have a mostly sunny day across the region with highs near 80. On sunday after a start in the 60’s clouds should increase with showers approaching late from the northwest from this upper level feature and shortwave. with the increase in clouds highs only make the low to mid 70’s.

2. By monday morning are upper level feature moves to south and interacts with the previous front to develop a surface low pressure, this is more a winter-time set-up.

There still timing and track differences with this surface low but an east wind and cloudy conditions are a good bet, modeling has a needed steady rain for Lex and east with showers and drizzle back to the west. Of course changes to the low track will affect the expected rainfall coverage since we have 2 features interacting to produce this system, similar to phasing in the wintertime. I doubt we see 70 on Monday b/c of the clouds and rain with lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.  Showers, low clouds and fog may linger into Tuesday.

3. The long-range theory is becoming more likely with a tropical system going up the east coast and pulling in chilly fall air behind it. 40’s/ 60’s split  may become the rule for a few days around the 4th.