pattern change coming in stages

by

1. today we have a mostly sunny day across the region with highs near 80. On sunday after a start in the 60’s clouds should increase with showers approaching late from the northwest from this upper level feature and shortwave. with the increase in clouds highs only make the low to mid 70’s.

2. By monday morning are upper level feature moves to south and interacts with the previous front to develop a surface low pressure, this is more a winter-time set-up.

There still timing and track differences with this surface low but an east wind and cloudy conditions are a good bet, modeling has a needed steady rain for Lex and east with showers and drizzle back to the west. Of course changes to the low track will affect the expected rainfall coverage since we have 2 features interacting to produce this system, similar to phasing in the wintertime. I doubt we see 70 on Monday b/c of the clouds and rain with lows in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.  Showers, low clouds and fog may linger into Tuesday.

3. The long-range theory is becoming more likely with a tropical system going up the east coast and pulling in chilly fall air behind it. 40’s/ 60’s split  may become the rule for a few days around the 4th.

Advertisements

2 Responses to “pattern change coming in stages”

  1. Seth Says:

    It would be interesting to see if the GFS has it’s usual southeastern bias with the upcoming east coast hurricane. Maybe it will trend west to give us more precip.

  2. mitchg Says:

    actually don’t think that is the case this time with a deep eastern trough expected. but always be on the lookout for this bias as it will come into play in the future.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: