GFS hinting at excessive rainfall next week

by

Monday night

Thursday morning

right now the 12z gfs came in with 4-6 inches of rain next week for the region.

However a major note is that the ecmwf was quite a bit more progressive next week but still brings a general and realistic 1-2 inches of much-needed rain early next week.

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5 Responses to “GFS hinting at excessive rainfall next week”

  1. mitchg Says:

    umm have a different take on Mon-Tue than nws. most of the modeling showing a nice rainfall though.

  2. mitchg Says:

    we’ll see on this.

    Monday duel

    me- showers and thunder likely (60%)
    NWS- mostly sunny

  3. mitchg Says:

    URGENT – FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    227 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

    …RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
    EVENING…

    INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>032-061-062-070>072-230000-
    /O.NEW.KLMK.FW.W.0002.100922T1827Z-100923T0000Z/
    ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
    CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
    BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
    JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-
    WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
    227 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010 /127 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2010/

    …RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
    EVENING…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
    WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
    EVENING.

    UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY SURFACE AIR HAS
    CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THIS
    AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30
    MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY GROUND FUELS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
    FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
    ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW…OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
    STRONG WINDS…LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY…AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
    CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

    &&

    $$

    RJS

  4. mitchg Says:

    nws has added 30% rain for monday.

  5. mitchg Says:

    model images have changed.

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