slight risk severe storms Today

by

A line of storms has moved into the region this morning with a few strong to severe storms. There is enough instability coupled with decent low level lapse rates to maintain this line as it moves south across the state today, these factors will promote some storms to contain gusty winds. A watch may be issued soon by the spc as well. This line will likely not intensify over the next few hours till 1 pm et as there some inhibition which limits convection ahead of the line, this should diminish after 1 pm et.

spc thoughts

POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STEADILY
   INCREASE INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
   FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA/MUCH OF KY TO WV AND FAR SOUTHERN OH/FAR
   WESTERN VA. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
   REGION.
  
   TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
   THE MORNING ESPECIALLY WITHIN A NEAR-COLD FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE CORRIDOR IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AXIS ACROSS KY/FAR
   SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO MUCH OF WV/SOUTHERN OH. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES ACROSS THE
   ADJACENT WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THIS…AMID A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
   A PREVALENCE OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS…INTERPROLATED/MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH RUC SOUNDINGS IMPLY THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY
   HEAT/DESTABILIZE AND CINH WILL ERODE INTO MID/LATE MORNING. TSTMS
   SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/VIGOR ACCORDINGLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   NOT BE PARTICULARLY AIDED ON THE LARGE SCALE…BUT THE DEGREE OF
   DESTABILIZATION /1500 TO 3000 J PER KG MLCAPE AND STEEPENING LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF 30-35 KT WESTERLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD GENERALLY EASTWARD MOVING LINEAR TSTM
   CLUSTERS /WITH SOME SMALL BOWS/ CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.
  
I’ll be tracking this line throughout the day

update 10:00 am ct

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
  SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
  PENDLETON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT.

* AT 1029 AM EDT…RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
  ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENWOOD TO WILLIAMSTOWN TO CORINTH…
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
  FALMOUTH…

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect untill 6 pm et for all areas southeast of Louisville.

spc thoughts

DISCUSSION…THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A
   SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING SEWD NEAR THE OH RIVER.  STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE
   VALUES INCREASING TO AOA 3000 J/KG…ALLOWING ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION.  MODEST LOW-MIDLEVEL WLY
   FLOW OF ABOUT 30 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS
   WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
also don’t forget a heat advisory is up for the south as well.

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15 Responses to “slight risk severe storms Today”

  1. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHERN BRACKEN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN MASON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHEASTERN PENDLETON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    ROBERTSON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 1130 AM EDT.

    * AT 1042 AM EDT…RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
    PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    MCKINNEYSBURG…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    BROOKSVILLE…

  2. mitchg Says:

    gusty winds from 45-60 mph possibile with this cluster of storms, the harrison county mesonet recorded a gust of 45 mph.

  3. mitchg Says:

    the storms should reach maysville around 11:20 et.

  4. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    FLEMING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN ROWAN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

    * AT 1055 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM 13 MILES WEST OF WASHINGTON TO 10 MILES NORTH OF CARLISLE TO
    MILLERSBURG…AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  5. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    BOYD COUNTY IN KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…CANNONSBURG…ASHLAND…
    CARTER COUNTY IN KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…OLIVE HILL…GRAYSON LAKE STATE
    PARK…GRAYSON…CARTER CAVES STATE PARK…
    GREENUP COUNTY IN KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK…
    NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA…
    SOUTHERN GALLIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO…
    LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…LAKE VESUVIUS…IRONTON…COAL
    GROVE…

    * UNTIL 100 PM EDT

    * AT 1129 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
    HAIL…AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS
    WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF
    LETITIA TO 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLIVE HILL TO 32 MILES WEST OF
    OLIVE HILL…OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF
    WEST PORTSMOUTH TO 23 MILES NORTH OF MOREHEAD TO 17 MILES WEST OF
    MOREHEAD…AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  6. mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
    JOHNSON…NORTHERN MORGAN…ELLIOTT AND EASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL
    1245 PM EDT…

    AT 1222 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM STARK TO LITTLE SANDY TO TWENTYSIX…MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
    NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    LICK BRANCH…LENOX…STEELE…BRUIN…ISONVILLE…ELKFORK…
    ELAMTON…CROCKETT…CULVER…JEPTHA…MOON…KEATON…MIMA…
    RELIEF…GILLEM BRANCH…OPHIR…REDBUSH…ELNA…BARNROCK AND
    FLATGAP.

  7. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    CENTRAL HART COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

    * AT 1117 AM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MUNFORDVILLE…MOVING EAST
    AT 30 MPH.

  8. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN BARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL NOON CDT

    * AT 1126 AM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM TRACY TO FOREST SPRINGS…MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  9. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN CASEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN METCALFE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 1245 PM CDT/145 PM EDT/

    * AT 108 PM EDT/1208 PM CDT/…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
    INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
    ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM YUMA TO GRADYVILLE…MOVING EAST AT 40
    MPH.

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    KNIFELY AND COLUMBIA…
    CLEMENTSVILLE AND VESTER…
    PELLYTON AND GLENS FORK…
    RHEBER AND MONTPELIER…
    RUSSELL COUNTY AIRPORT AND RUSSELL SPRINGS…

  10. mitch Says:

    discussion for somerset, corbin, berea, hazard

    a line of thunderstorms has delevoped from east of bowling green to south of Lexington moving east into these regions. The atmosphere is favorable for a maintaining or strenghtning squall line. storms may produce severe winds.

  11. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL BREATHITT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 215 PM EDT

    * AT 126 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELKATAWA…OR NEAR
    JACKSON…AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    JACKSON…INVERNESS…DUMONT…QUICKSAND…NOCTOR…SMITH BRANCH…
    PORTSMOUTH…HAGINSVILLE…WILSTACY…PRESS…STEVENSON…SIKES…
    BAYS…ROUSSEAU…GUAGE…CAMP LEWIS…LUNAH…LAMBRIC AND
    DAISYDELL

  12. mitch Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT
    FOR EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN KENTUCKY…AND GALLIA…CENTRAL MEIGS
    AND SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO…AND WESTERN
    LINCOLN…WAYNE…CABELL…MASON AND PUTNAM COUNTIES IN WEST
    VIRGINIA…

    AT 102 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
    WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
    EXTENDING FROM HARTFORD CITY TO GALLIPOLIS TO HUNTINGTON…AND
    WAYNE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT AROUND 40 MPH

  13. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHWESTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 230 PM EDT

    * AT 151 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERTY…OR 20
    MILES NORTHWEST OF SOMERSET…AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE
    HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

  14. mitch Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
    FOR CLINTON AND SOUTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES…

    AT 1254 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF ALBANY…
    MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT…
    ALBANY…
    STATIC…
    SEVENTY SIX…
    DESDA…
    WATAUGA…
    NORA.

  15. mitch Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 330 PM EDT

    * AT 252 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM 7 MILES EAST OF RED JACKET TO COLEMAN TO GARDEN VILLAGE…AND
    MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
    DAMAGING WINDS.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    BOARD TREE…ROCKHOUSE…PHYLLIS…FISHTRAP LAKE…MARROWBONE…
    PHELPS…MAJESTIC…COLEMAN…JAMBOREE…BELCHER…BIGGS…
    WOODMAN…ELKHORN CITY…FEDSCREEK…ARGO…MOUTHCARD…PAW PAW…
    TOONERVILLE AND CEDARVILLE.

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