Severe thunderstorm watch till 10 pm (Live Coverage)

by

spc thoughts

DISCUSSION…BOWING MCS OVER IL IS RACING EASTWARD AT 35-40 KNOTS
   AND WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT…ALTHOUGH STRONGER CORES
   COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME HAIL.

WW0495 Radar

my thoughts: convective inhibtion has subsided ahead of the line. CAPE and LI values ahead of the line have increased to indicate a very unstable airmass ahead of this thunderstorm complex. However there is little shear with low helicity values ahead of it. The net result should be that this complex continues southeast into the region with the main threat being gusty winds from the storms with little change in the strength of the line. Areas north of the southern KY pkwy and west of Lexington have the best chance of being impacted by 7 pm. I’ll update around 6 et.

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27 Responses to “Severe thunderstorm watch till 10 pm (Live Coverage)”

  1. mitchg Says:

    south of 1-64 and west of 1-75 should this band of severe storms between 6:30 and 9:30 pm et.

  2. mitchg Says:

    the severe thunderstorm watch has been exteded south

  3. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    BULLITT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE…
    SOUTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…
    FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…
    EASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…

    * UNTIL 730 PM EDT

    * AT 642 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM GEORGETOWN TO ELIZABETH TO FLAHERTY…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    FLOYDS KNOBS AND EDWARDSVILLE…
    NEW ALBANY AND SHIVELY…
    CEMENTVILLE AND CLARKSVILLE…
    WATSON AND CLARK REGIONAL AIRPORT…
    UTICA AND LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD…
    PROSPECT AND ST. MATTHEWS…

  4. mitchg Says:

    CDT/700 PM EDT/ FOR BRECKINRIDGE…MEADE…SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND
    SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES…

    AT 637 PM EDT/537 PM CDT/…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
    CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
    A LINE EXTENDING FROM MAUCKPORT TO GLEN DEAN…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
    25 MPH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REACH MCQUADY IN SOUTHERN
    BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY BY 545 PM CDT.

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    IRVINGTON AND HARNED…
    ROFF AND GARFIELD…
    LACONIA AND GUSTON…
    GARRETT AND MADRID…

  5. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    BELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTH CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 715 PM EDT

    * AT 638 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
    HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
    LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JELLICO CREEK TO GOINS TO
    DAVISBURG…AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  6. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 745 PM EDT

    * AT 651 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM VINE GROVE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERTREES…MOVING EAST AT
    35 MPH.

  7. mitchg Says:

    numerous cells firing ahead of the line

  8. mitchg Says:

    this from the spc for our region

    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495
    CONTINUES.

    A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED…BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
    MONITORED.

    AN ONGOING VIGOROUS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ADVANCING
    SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES INTO A
    PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW REGIME /AT OR
    BELOW 20 KTS/. SYSTEM HAS ALSO SHIFTED AWAY FROM SUPPORTING
    LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION…AND WESTERLY
    LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE ARE NOT
    OPTIMIZING SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW. HOWEVER…THE CONVECTIVELY
    GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS…AND IS MOVING
    AROUND 35 KTS…WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF IT…INTO THE
    SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS… STILL CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 2000-3000+
    J/KG AND WEAK INHIBITION. SO THE STORM CLUSTER MAY BE SLOW TO
    WEAKEN THIS EVENING…AND IT COULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
    OF EASTERN TENNESSEE BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND KNOXVILLE…DURING THE
    02-04Z TIME FRAME. PEAK WINDS ALONG THE GUST FRONT SEEM LIKELY TO
    REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE…BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SPORADIC
    DAMAGE…MAINLY TO TREES/POWER LINES.

  9. mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
    FOR GRAYSON AND SOUTHWESTERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTIES…

    AT 605 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHORT CREEK…MOVING
    SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    MILLWOOD AND MCDANIELS…
    CANEYVILLE…
    LEITCHFIELD AND SHREWSBURY…

  10. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHWESTERN BARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EDMONSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOWLING GREEN…

    * UNTIL 700 PM CDT

    * AT 624 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM SWEEDEN TO SUGAR GROVE…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

  11. mitchg Says:

    isolated storms ahead of the line taking away the energy needed to keep the main squall line going. only isolated severe weather remains.

  12. mitchg Says:

    storng storms with lightning hvy rain and 30 mph wind gusts to impact

    hart, green, taylor, anderson,woodford,fayette,bulitt and boone counties from now till 8:30 pm et.

  13. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    TAYLOR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 830 PM EDT/730 PM CDT/

    * AT 642 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUMMERSVILLE…MOVING EAST
    AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING
    WINDS.

  14. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    TAYLOR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 830 PM EDT/730 PM CDT/

    * AT 642 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUMMERSVILLE…MOVING EAST
    AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING
    WINDS.

    * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    GREENSBURG…
    BLACK GNAT…
    SALOMA AND HOBSON…
    CAMPBELLSVILLE…
    ELK HORN AND TAYLOR COUNTY AIRPORT…
    MANNSVILLE AND YUMA…

  15. mitchg Says:

    …STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN…SMALL
    HAIL…AND GUSTY WINDS…AFFECTING WOODFORD AND FAYETTE COUNTIES…

    AT 738 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
    STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
    LEXINGTON TO VERSAILLES TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCEBURG…AND
    MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
    OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
    MILE…SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL…AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
    40 MPH…ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

    THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    LEXINGTON…
    VERSAILLES…
    TYRONE…
    BLUE GRASS AIRPORT.

  16. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    BELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 100 AM EDT

    * AT 700 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
    WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL FALLING AT AROUND
    TWO TO TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES PER HOUR FROM THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
    THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDERS. THESE STORMS WERE DRIFTING
    EAST ALONG THE STATE BORDER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE HALF OF AN
    INCH IS POSSIBLE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED RAIN TO AS
    MUCH AS TWO INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN BELL COUNTY.

  17. mitchg Says:

    strong storms with winds to 35 mph in scott and fayette counties these storms are producing deadly lightning.

  18. mitchg Says:

    cell in green and taylor counties may have small hail.

  19. mitchg Says:

    AT 806 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLACK GNAT…MOVING
    EAST AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING
    WINDS.

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    HOBSON…
    CAMPBELLSVILLE…
    ELK HORN AND TAYLOR COUNTY AIRPORT…
    MANNSVILLE AND YUMA…

  20. mitchg Says:

    trees down in hart county

  21. mitchg Says:

    …STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS…DANGEROUS
    LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN…AND SMALL HAIL…

    AT 815 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
    STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PARIS TO 9 MILES
    NORTH OF HARRODSBURG…AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
    OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
    MILE…SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL…AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND
    45 TO 50 MPH…ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS

  22. mitchg Says:

    strong storms with small hail, gusty winds up to 50 mph and deadly lightning will impact barren,metcalfe,adair,taylor,marion,washington,mercer,garrad,boyle,lincon,casey,russell ,clinton clark, burbon, harrison and cumberland counties.

  23. mitchg Says:

    the isolated storms have formed into a line of just strong storms. the first line now is just a period of moderate rain. this line of strong storms will move east across the region tonight.

  24. mitchg Says:

    40-50 mph wind gusts reported in lexington.

  25. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    BOURBON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    CLARK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 915 PM EDT

    * AT 824 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM CENTERVILLE TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTONVILLE…MOVING
    EAST AT 20 MPH.

  26. mitchg Says:

    trees down in adair county

  27. mitchg Says:

    storm bowing out over clark and bourbon counties. increased wind threat there.

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