heat and severe weather to make it an active week

by

1. we’re in the warm sector ahead of a slow-moving frontal boundary as a result it will continue to be warm and humid for the week with lows in the low to mid 70’s and highs near 90 outside of storms, most days the heat index should be near 100, caution is advised for outdoor activities.

2. Monday we will still a bit further away from the boundary which will be located over the midwest and upper Ohio valley leading to mainly scattered threat for storms but there is a potential although not likely for a mcs to move into or redevelop in the region with the threat for widespread storms with gusty winds. The storm prediction center has outlined our region for a slight risk of severe storms on Monday because of this.

3.  Tuesday the frontal boundary will be just to our northwest leading to a higher likelihood of thunderstorms or a orgianzed mcs complex. throughout the next few days the water capacity of the atmosphere will be very high leading to a hvy rain threat. Once again there is a slight risk of severe storms.

4. Wednesday the front will move just east of the region and fade away so we just have an isolated coverage of storms. Thursday may be dry with another surge of heat by the end of the week.

here is an update on the tropics as well. this wave is well east of Caribbean but should move northwest in that direction over the next week with a favorable enviroment for development.

this from the nhc….

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE…60 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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18 Responses to “heat and severe weather to make it an active week”

  1. mitchg Says:

    watching a cell closely in anderson county for signs of rotation.
    all clear for this storm now just a regular storm.

  2. mitchg Says:

    update on an mcs that delevoped earlier tonight to our northwest from the spc

    A LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE OH VALLEY LOCATED ALONG A
    TIGHT GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY FROM SCNTRL IL EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN
    IND. SOUTH OF THE MCS…OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY
    WITH SBCAPE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG SUGGESTING THE MCS WILL
    CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
    FAVORED TRACK OF THE MCS WOULD BE ESEWD INTO CNTRL KY WHERE SFC
    DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S F. THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG
    WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AT ILN
    SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS
    THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
    COOLS THIS EVENING.
    BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
    ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH PART OF THE EVENING.
    HOWEVER…A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF
    THE SVR WEATHER THREAT.

    REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 0100Z INDICATES THAT COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
    WITH BOWING QLCS CONTINUES TO EFFICIENTLY INITIATE NEW CONVECTION
    ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE AS IT MOVES TOWARD SERN IND AT AROUND 35-40
    KT. 00Z RAOBS AT BNA AND ILN INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
    RESIDES ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT…WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000
    J/KG TO ITS SW…FALLING TO 700 J/KG OVER SWRN OH. IF NEW STORMS CAN
    DEVELOP ALONG THE SW FLANK OF THE MCS…THEN PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE
    SE MAY MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FOR A FEW MORE HRS…WITH A
    CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
    OTHERWISE…OVERALL WEAKENING WOULD BE LIKELY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE
    STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SWRN OH/FAR NRN KY.

  3. mitchg Says:

    mcs now moving across the river in the next half hour. several warnings with it as storms along it as the line is bowing out in a few spots.

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN TRIMBLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…

    * UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

    * AT 955 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
    60 MPH AS WELL AS PEA SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    WAKEFIELD…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH

  4. mitchg Says:

    A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT
    FOR WESTERN OWEN…CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN GALLATIN COUNTIES…

    AT 1049 PM EDT…RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
    LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM INTERSTATE 71 AT MILE MARKER 52
    TO LANGSTAFF TO WORTHVILLE…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

    THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CARROLL…SOUTHWESTERN
    GALLATIN AND WESTERN OWEN COUNTIES…INCLUDING EAGLE STATION…
    SANDERS…SPARTA…WHEATLEY…NEW LIBERTY…SQUIRESVILLE AND GRATZ

  5. mitchg Says:

    mcs will move into frankfort and louisville metros shortly. intense lightning likely with these storms.

    …STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN…AND
    GUSTY WINDS…

    AT 1047 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
    A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF LA GRANGE…AND MOVING
    SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
    OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
    MILE…AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH…ARE EXPECTED WITH
    THIS STORM.

    THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    LA GRANGE…
    BALLARDSVILLE…
    SMITHFIELD…
    EMINENCE…
    CHESTNUT GROVE…

    THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
    13 AND 35.

  6. mitchg Says:

    blopper of the night nws still has 20% chances up for the bluegrass and louisville areas overnight. widespread storms are expected over the next few hours

    must be shorthanded there tonight no evening update for surface weather.

  7. mitchg Says:

    1-2 inches of rain can be expected from 11:30 pm to 1:30 am for henry, shelby, franklin and owen counties. already 1 inch of rain has fallen in the past hour over western shelby county according to nws radar.

  8. mitchg Says:

    …STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN…SMALL
    HAIL…AND STRONG WINDS…

    AT 1109 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
    STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JEFFERSONTOWN TO
    OKOLONA…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
    OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
    MILE…AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH…ARE EXPECTED
    WITH THESE STORMS.

    THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    TAYLORSVILLE…

    THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
    MARKERS 125 AND 128.

  9. mitchg Says:

    …A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OWEN…SOUTHWESTERN PENDLETON
    AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM EDT…

    AT 1115 PM EDT…RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LONG
    RIDGE…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

    WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

    IN ADDITION…HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

    SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE…WILLIAMSTOWN.

    ALSO…MONTEREY…NEEDMORE…TWIN BRIDGES…HOLBROOK…BEECHWOOD…
    STEWARTSVILLE…LAWRENCEVILLE AND KEEFER ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
    STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

    WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
    SMALL STREAMS.

  10. mitchg Says:

    strongest storm over shelby county now. small streams and creeks likely rising quickly now. bow likely enhancing winds in owen county.

  11. mitchg Says:

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    1127 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

    KYZ034>036-038>040-140415-
    ANDERSON-FRANKLIN-SCOTT-SHELBY-SPENCER-WOODFORD-
    1127 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

    …STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN…SMALL
    HAIL…AND GUSTY WINDS…

    AT 1124 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
    A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF SHELBYVILLE…AND MOVING
    SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
    OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
    MILE AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH…ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
    STORM.

    THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    LAWRENCEBURG…

    THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
    35 AND 65.

    THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
    129 AND 130

  12. mitchg Says:

    owen county part of mcs has weekened.

  13. mitchg Says:

    anderson, woodford and scott counties next in line gusty winds, frequent lightning and very hvy rain likely.

  14. mitchg Says:

    comments will end at midnight have to get up early tommorow. these storms should start to weeken some after midnight.

  15. mitchg Says:

    timing of this cluster of storms containing lots of lightning, heavy rain of 1-2 inches per hour and gusty winds to 40 mph

    lexington 12:45 am
    winchester, richmond 1:15 am
    mt.sterling, irvine 1:45 am
    morehead, west liberty 2:20 am

    signing off for the night. for more please go to http://kyweathercenter.com/2010/06/13/complex-of-storms-moving-in.aspx

  16. mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PIKE COUNTY
    UNTIL 130 PM EDT…

    AT 108 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM GILBERT CREEK TO ASHCAMP…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

  17. mitchg Says:

    ..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…
    ..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
    ..REMARKS..

    1215 PM TSTM WND DMG WATTS 37.44N 83.31W
    06/14/2010 BREATHITT KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

    TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 15.

    1220 PM TSTM WND DMG BUCKHORN 37.35N 83.47W
    06/14/2010 PERRY KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

    TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 28

    1223 PM TSTM WND DMG TINA 37.36N 83.02W
    06/14/2010 KNOTT KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

    TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE.

  18. mitchg Says:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CLAY
    COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT…

    AT 353 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
    60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TREADWAY…OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
    MANCHESTER…MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
    ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

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