strong storms possible tonight

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Although I don’t think the chances are good for this to happen, there is some instability present which may allow strong to severe storms to our west to hold their own as they move into our region.

radar

Central Great Lakes sector loop

they are several warnings in effect along this line.

the storm prediction center has also put our region in a mesoscale discussion.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2010
  
   AREAS AFFECTED…ERN-SRN IND…SWRN OH…NRN KY
  
   CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 122147Z – 122315Z
  
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS OVER CENTRAL/ERN IL WILL BEGIN TO
   APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF WW 301 AND 302 DURING THE NEXT HR OR TWO.
   IT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE NEEDED
   DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF IND…OH…AND KY…BUT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
  
   CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZING INTO BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS ARE GENERALLY MOVING E AT AROUND 30-40 KT…WHICH WILL
   CARRY THEM TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF WW 301 AND 302 DURING THE NEXT HR
   OR TWO. THE AIRMASS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF IND/WRN
   OH/KY IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 70S F…WITH MLCAPE VALUES RESIDING AROUND 2500 J/KG.
   HOWEVER…AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY
   MODERATE DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW/SHEAR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   REGION…WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING THE ORGANIZATION OF A MORE
   ROBUST/DAMAGING QLCS. IN ADDITION…THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
   OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY NARROW DUE TO THE STABILIZING AFFECTS
   OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE LINE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OVER VA…RESULTING IN
   WEAK CAPE VALUES OVER SERN OH AND ERN KY. THUS…THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE LIMITED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR
   AS STORMS MOVE E OUT OF CURRENT WW/S…AND THIS MAY PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR ANOTHER WATCH.

I’ll continue to monitor things tonight.

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5 Responses to “strong storms possible tonight”

  1. mitchg Says:

    A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for north ky here is the spc discussion
    DISCUSSION…WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL WITH MCS OVER IND WILL
    CONTINUE EWD INTO A VERY MOIST AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS
    SAMPLED BY THE 00Z ILM SOUNDING. WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
    THREAT WITH THE LINE OF STORMS ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS FOR SEVERAL
    MORE HOURS.

  2. mitchg Says:

    …GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING CLARK…HENRY…OLDHAM AND TRIMBLE
    COUNTIES…

    AT 1025 PM EDT…THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
    THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WAS ALONG A LINE FROM 8 MILES
    NORTHWEST OF VEVAY TO BEDFORD TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF SCOTTSBURG TO 9
    MILES SOUTHWEST OF SCOTTSBURG…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

    GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THESE WINDS ENTER THE REGION
    FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
    WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

  3. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    BOONE COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    WESTERN BRACKEN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    CAMPBELL COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    NORTHEASTERN GALLATIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    KENTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    PENDLETON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
    EXTREME WESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO…
    SOUTHERN CLERMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO…

    * UNTIL 1130 PM EDT.

    * AT 1049 PM EDT…RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
    PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    ATWOOD…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

  4. mitchg Says:

    not sure what they’re seeing there, must be a strong outflow boundary ahead of the storms.

  5. mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT
    FOR EXTREME WESTERN BROWN…SOUTHERN CLERMONT…WESTERN BRACKEN…
    PENDLETON…CAMPBELL AND NORTHERN GRANT COUNTIES…

    AT 1106 PM EDT…RADAR INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
    A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH. THE
    OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR BUTLER…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45
    MPH.

    LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    FALMOUTH AND FELICITY.

    IN ADDITION…MORGAN…CATAWBA…IVOR…MOUNT AUBURN…MOSCOW…
    NEVILLE…FOSTER AND POINT ISABEL ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM

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