weekend looking better

by

Early this week I commented on the potential for severe weather this weekend. However led by the nam modeling has trended north with the next front this weekend which will keep  the majority of thunderstorms and those long tracked mcs’s to our north for the most part. With this front to our north we will be closer to the main heat ridge and have our first shot at widespread 90 degree readings on Saturday. Highs will be in the mid to upper to 80’s today and Sunday. Thunderstorm coverage will be isolated today and Saturday with scattered coverage Sunday afternoon.  Areas north of 1-64 still have some chance of seeing another mcs thunderstorm complex sometime from late Saturday into Sunday closer to the front and the spc has this region outlined with another slight risk of severe storms.

today

SPC Day1 1300Z Outlook Categorical

Saturday

the main threats are for gusty winds and small hail.

model images

front staying north for Saturday ( will update sat am on it’s own)

we’re just nicked by the front Sunday afternoon pushes edge of the heat ridge further west ( will change to something else sat am)

heading into next week we will be on the battle lines between the heat ridge to our west and a little cooler air to our east and will be in the region that has one if not more mcs’s thunderstorm complexes next week with a heavy rain and severe threat. Heading toward next weekend our first heat wave is looking very likely across the region with the ecmwf most extreme. I’ll update the 14 day forecast so we get a good handle on how hot it could get.

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25 Responses to “weekend looking better”

  1. mitchg Says:

    14 day forecast now updated. with regards to the heat wave my thinking is mid 90’s with heat index values near 100 possible centered around the 14th.

  2. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    318 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN ELLIOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHEASTERN FLEMING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    ROWAN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 345 PM EDT

    * AT 316 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM MUSES MILLS TO HAYS CROSSING TO PELFREY…AND MOVING EAST AT
    35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    WALTZ…GATES…HAMM…TRIPLETT…WAGNER…VALE…MINOR…
    HALDEMAN…ELLIOTTVILLE…WAGNER STORE…FANNIN VALLEY…FARLEY…
    STARK…NEWFOUNDLAND AND BRUIN.

  3. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    308 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    CENTRAL MAGOFFIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 345 PM EDT

    * AT 308 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FALCON…OR NEAR
    SALYERSVILLE…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY
    ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

  4. mitchg Says:

    …HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO AFFECT NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST
    KENTUCKY INTO THE EVENING…

    .A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
    DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON…SPREADING HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN
    THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST KENTUCKY. MUCH OF THIS RAIN WILL
    FALL ON LOCATIONS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY EVENING AND AS A
    RESULT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
    ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND END THE THREAT FOR
    EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

  5. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 700 PM EDT

    * AT 254 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
    WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 1.5 INCHES
    AND TWO INCHES DURING THE PAST ONE TO TWO HOURS IN THE RACCOON AND
    KIMPER AREA.

  6. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    FLASH FLOOD WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    204 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL ESTILL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 500 PM EDT

    * AT 202 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS
    THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM COULD EXCEED
    2 INCHES IN SOME PLACES.

    * RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
    OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
    IRVINE…BLACKBURN…CALLOWAY CROSSING…COW CREEK…DOE CREEK…
    KINGS STATION…NORTH IRVINE…RAVENNA…RICE STATION…SANDHILL…
    SOUTH IRVINE…WEEDON…WEST IRVINE…WILLOW TREE…WINSTON…
    WISEMANTOWN AND WITT.

  7. mitchg Says:

    hvy rain, gusty winds of 35-60 mph and small hail the main threats. main areas of impact untill 4 pm are just east of morehead and about 10 miles norh and northeast of west liberty where a gusty outflow boundary has just passed through.

  8. mitchg Says:

    strong storm moving into lexington and north of nicholasville. could be some small hail by fayette mall.

  9. mitchg Says:

    repeat thunderstorms over washington county watch creeks and streams there for flash flooding.

  10. mitchg Says:

    …STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN…SMALL
    HAIL…AND GUSTY WINDS…

    AT 325 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
    STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF NICHOLASVILLE…AND MOVING
    NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING…HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
    OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
    MILE…SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL…AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
    40 MPH…ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

    THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT…
    LEXINGTON…

  11. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHEASTERN HARLAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    EAST CENTRAL LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN LETCHER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 415 PM EDT

    * AT 333 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM BIG LAUREL TO GORDON TO LYNCH…AND MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
    PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

  12. mitchg Says:

    severe storm heading into northern fayette county with gusty winds storm starting to bow out. get inside now, small hail likely on the east and northside of lexington.

  13. mitchg Says:

    34 mph gust at the mesonet site in lexington. storm stronger looking now on doppler.

  14. mitchg Says:

    right now the only storm i think is severe is the lexington one but there 3 warnings in east ky for strong storms and none for the lex storm.

  15. mitchg Says:

    trees down in lexington. can’t see it personally to call it in to nws to help them out on this storm.

  16. mitchg Says:

    strong winds blasting the horse park and newtown pike now.

  17. mitchg Says:

    storm starting to weeken as it pushes into burbon county.

  18. mitchg Says:

    new strong storms over warren county one just to the south of bowling green the other by the corvette muesum. small hail possible.

  19. mitchg Says:

    more storms to add to hvy rain threat moving into washington county.

  20. mitchg Says:

    A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 445
    PM EDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON…

    SOUTHWESTERN BREATHITT…
    SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY…
    WEST CENTRAL PERRY…
    NORTHERN CLAY AND
    NORTHWESTERN LESLIE.

    AT 407 PM EDT…A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIDELL…OR
    NEAR MANCHESTER…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

    LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE…BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO…MILL POND
    AROUND 415 PM EDT…WILD CAT AROUND 420 PM EDT…SETH AROUND 425 PM
    EDT…BRUTUS AROUND 430 PM EDT…WHOOPFLAREA AROUND 435 PM EDT…

    RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN…WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
    AND ONE QUARTER INCHES PER HOUR…GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH…FREQUENT
    LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

  21. mitchg Says:

    strong storm in clay county likely has gusty winds to 50 mph
    and hail may turn severe.

  22. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    EASTERN LETCHER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 445 PM EDT

    * AT 358 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WRIGHT…OR 5 MILES EAST OF
    WHITESBURG…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY
    ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

  23. mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
    WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOWLING GREEN…

    * UNTIL 630 PM CDT

    * AT 330 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN
    HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 20 MINUTES FROM HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
    OVER THE SAME AREAS IN WARREN COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE BOWLING
    GREEN METRO AREA…NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TOWN OF OAKLAND. THESE
    STORMS WILL CAUSE STANDING WATER IN SOME SPOTS THROUGHOUT BOWLING
    GREEN AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

    ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
    THE HOUR IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

  24. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    FLASH FLOOD WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    356 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2010

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOWLING GREEN…

    * UNTIL 645 PM CDT

    * AT 349 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY FROM HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
    SAME AREAS WITHIN THE WARNED AREA.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…BOWLING GREEN…

    IN ADDITION…WARREN COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT AND PLUM SPRINGS ARE
    INCLUDED IN THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING. THE AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
    CLOSE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN THE LAST HOUR…AND THIS COULD
    CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OR STANDING WATER…ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
    BOWLING GREEN METRO AREA.

  25. mitchg Says:

    Weather Statement 06.04.2010 (3:50 pm CDT)

    Thunderstorms will continue to move over the southern and central portions of Warren county including most of Bowling Green over the next hour. These storms may contain gusty winds and hail but most noticeably have heavy rainfall rates. With the slow north and east movement of the storms flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening.

    Lead Forecaster: MWG

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