more active pattern this week

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1. Wednesday we’ll see another frontal system headed south and east toward our region. Thunderstorms will develop to our north and west by nighttime organizing into clusters and line segments leading to a damaging wind threat with any storms Wednesday and Thursday. The atmosphere ahead of this front will be moderately unstable with a fair amount of CAPE as well with plenty of warmth and moisture ahead of the front which will allow these storms Wednesday night to our north to become severe. By Thursday morning these storms will weaken somewhat and slowly move south into Kentucky. With marginally unstable conditions Thursday afternoon the redevelopment of these thunderstorms along the front may allow for a few strong to severe storms, however morning  cloud cover could limit instability, small hail and locally hvy rains are also possible.  the potential for morning cloud cover Thursday has kept the region from being placed in a slight risk of severe storms at this time by the spc.

NAM radar

thu early morning

thu early afternoon

Lows will be in the mid 60’s tonight with a very humid airmass in place with upper 80’s Wednesday for highs with the front holding off allowing for a mostly sunny day. Clouds and rain will keep temps in the lower 80’s Thursday.

2. Friday the frontal system will wash out over the region allowing for a continued chance of thunderstorms more of the isolated variety with lows in the 60’s and highs in the 80’s once again.

3. This weekend is another one that features a lot of outdoor activities around the region a heads up as severe weather is a good possibility at some point ( most likely sat into sun). However even though the parameters look to be in place timing uncertainties still exist which precluded the spc from issuing a risk area for us.

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2 Responses to “more active pattern this week”

  1. mitchg Says:

    00z nam a much faster run with storms moving into the region tommorow evening. severe threat may be increasing if timing becomes more favorable.

  2. mitchg Says:

    may even be sooner than that with a mcs complex over northern missouri now heading southeast toward the bluegrass. If it holds it could reach our region by dawn.

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