Weekend Forecast

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I will be in Louisville most of Thursday and Friday so I’m posting this a little early with the additional benefit of getting the memorial day forecast sooner.

first the 4 pm et Wednesday observation from the Denver international airport

“Funnel Cloud Thunderstorm and Windy” don’t see that everyday an actual site reporting a funnel cloud in the hourly observation!!!

1. Over the past several days we have had warm and humid weather with isolated thunderstorms thanks to some moisture although limited coming from a subtropical low off the east coast and from the gulf. Look for the coverage of storms to increase a bit from isolated 10-20% to scattered 30-50% with a very weak front moving into the lower Ohio valley which will serve as a trigger. This front won’t have much change in wind direction or temperature so expect the same spread of 60’s for lows and 80’s for highs Thursday and Friday with the best chance for storms in the afternoon and evening.  Also with an LI of -2 and  CAPE just over 1000 a few of these storms may be strong with some instability  of the atmosphere.

2.  Some leftovers from the front may still be enough to trigger an isolated storm on Saturday or Sunday in the heating of the day with 80’s for highs and 60’s for lows once again.

3. The next front this one a little stronger moves into the region for Memorial day and Tuesday allowing for a chance for scattered storms ( I’ll go 30-50% but may need to go higher for Tuesday). By the middle to end of next week the front may be in position to our north and west to allow for the formation and passage of organized mcs’s which would increase the severe threat with this frontal boundary. Once again 60’s for lows and 80’s for highs will be the rule.

4. Over the weekend I’ll give another update on the WKU class out in the plains so far they have seen 10 tornadoes in less than one week of storm tracking!!!!

5. I’ll post my summer forecast on June 1st( Tuesday)

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