summertime pattern this week

by

1. here is the overall set-up this week.

a blocking high over the east coast should keep frontal zones out in the high plains this week. Also we still have a sub-tropical low off the east coast which should stall offshore. With return flow from the gulf some tropical moisture should come north into the region to promote isolated thunderstorms each day but with mostly sunny skies each day any thunderstorm could produce flash flooding. With a muggier airmass lows should stay in the 60’s with highs in the mid 80’s on average.

2. my goal is to have my summer forecast for the nation up by June 1. The last two winter forecasts I have hit dead on, now onto nailing the summer forecast.  

3. 1-2 of new rain is needed to make this the wettest May on record for us.

edited to add this: the subtropical low off the carolina coast  has a low chance to delevop into a tropical depression.

1. THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS REMAINS DISORGANIZED…AND THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS
DIMINISHING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW
IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IS STILL PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. NO FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED.

Advertisements

2 Responses to “summertime pattern this week”

  1. mitchg Says:

    I’m targeting June 1st-6th as a potential period with several chances of severe storms in the lower Ohio valley. Both gfs and ecmwf indicating several strong frontal systems for this time period.

  2. mitchg Says:

    the wku field methods class in the plains now has seen 10 total tornadoes!!!!! I hope to put some pics from there trip this weekend.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: