late week update and info on the WKU storm chase class

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1. We have some more clouds and rain to end the week. The heater is on and it’s may 19th, so it can only get warmer!!! In the meantime we have a wave of low pressure with a warm front coming through over the next few days. Rain and thunderstorms should develop over the Ozarks tomorrow and move east into the lower Ohio valley by Thursday night, we will likely squeeze out some sun before high clouds from the storms to our west roll in. This low pressure will be slow-moving with widespread showers and storms from Thursday night into the first part of Saturday across the east. The nam and the gfs seem to be coming to agreement now on timing.  A widespread 1/2 inch of rain can be expected.

NAM radar

Thursday eve rush hour

Friday morning

Sat am

the good news is with the sun tomorrow highs should reach the mid 70’s after a chilly start in the mid 50’s. On Friday with the warm frontal passage highs again will reach the 70’s. By the weekend southerly flow will kick in after the warm front passage allowing for a more summer like pattern.

Also back on the campus of WKU a field methods class in meteorology with the goal of seeing and documenting some great storms across the plains  in the next few weeks starts tomorrow they’ll head out into the plains tomorrow and be ready to go by the start of the next week when the next chance of severe weather occurs.  I know they must have said a few darns after the high risk today in the southern plains. I’ll put up a page which will give you all the links to there trip.

Update: there in Kansas and will head toward ne Col tommorow.

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4 Responses to “late week update and info on the WKU storm chase class”

  1. mitchg Says:

    the page is now added, i encourage you all to check it out.

  2. mitchg Says:

    see text outlooks from the spc for fri and sat.

    friday- …OH AND TN VALLEYS…
    AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY FRIDAY. AHEAD
    OF THE TROUGH…SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
    FRIDAY MORNING IN THE OH VALLEY ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
    AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
    REGION…SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
    INITIATE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL
    CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS IND…WRN KY
    AND WRN TN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 35
    KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
    KEEP THE STORMS MULTICELL IN NATURE BUT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MAY
    STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
    VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES MAXIMIZED. IF NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
    THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE GFS SUGGESTS…THEN A LINE OF STRONG
    THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

    Saturday- AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
    SATURDAY. WARMING SFC TEMPS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
    RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN
    MTNS WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE SATURDAY
    AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ERN TN AND NRN GA ON SATURDAY SHOW
    ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE STORM MODE SHOULD
    REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR MARGINAL WIND
    GUSTS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE DAY.

  3. mitchg Says:

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    1240 PM EDT THU MAY 20 2010

    KYZ061-070>072-201800-
    BUTLER KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MORGANTOWN…RUSSELLVILLE…
    BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN
    1140 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

    …HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO SOUTH-
    CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT THE MOMENT. THROUGH 100 PM CDT…THESE SHOWERS
    AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
    GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES…ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE
    TENNESSEE BORDER SUCH AS RUSSELLVILLE…ADAIRVILLE…FRANKLIN AND
    SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
    WILL RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH UNDER THE HEAVIEST
    RAINFALL. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES
    FROM THE RAIN WILL OCCUR AS WELL SO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING

  4. mitchg Says:

    looking at some of the indicies any severe weather looks isolated tommorow at best.

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