tornado watch north as afternoon storms fire

by

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   150 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2010
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          MUCH OF INDIANA
          NORTHERN KENTUCKY
          MUCH OF OHIO
          LAKE ERIE
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
   900 PM EDT.
  
   TORNADOES…HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOLEDO
   OHIO TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI OHIO.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
  
   REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   DISCUSSION…SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER WESTERN
   IND…AND IN A CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN KY.  THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
   DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE
   WARM FRONT MAY ALSO RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES.
  
   AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
 

radar

Central Great Lakes sector loop

the main cause for development today are old outflow boundaries from previous thunderstorms that coupled with an unstable atmosphere along the cold front and these thunderstorms over the next 36 hours could produce gusty winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. A limiting factor in my view will be cloud cover early in the day Friday but some thunderstorm development is likely Friday afternoon. There will be clusters of storms with the best timing of friday morning across the region. isolated flash flooding may become an issue again as well.

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