Another active week ahead

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We have another active week with several frontal boundaries around the region to add insult to a busy weather week expected it’s also finals week. As is the case the last few weeks my time for this site may be again limited, I’m aiming to provide more coverage this go around though.  However first we have a frost threat tonight for valleys and most of eastern Kentucky.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
252 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

…FROST LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING…

.A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS IN COMBINATION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS NEAR IDEAL FOR AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-080-085>088-104-106>120-100300-
/O.NEW.KJKL.FR.Y.0005.100510T0600Z-100510T1300Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-JACKSON-
LAUREL-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLEMINGSBURG…MOUNT STERLING…
OWINGSVILLE…MOREHEAD…IRVINE…STANTON…FRENCHBURG…MCKEE…
LONDON…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…MIDDLESBORO…
PINEVILLE…HARLAN…SANDY HOOK…WEST LIBERTY…PAINTSVILLE…
CAMPTON…SALYERSVILLE…PRESTONSBURG…BEATTYVILLE…JACKSON…
HINDMAN…BOONEVILLE…HAZARD…MANCHESTER…HYDEN…WHITESBURG…
INEZ…PIKEVILLE
252 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

…FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY.

* FROST WILL LIKELY FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING…
  BECOMING MOST PREVALENT BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S BY MONDAY
  MORNING AND MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN A FEW SPOTS.

* ANY TENDER VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PLANTS THAT ARE LEFT UNCOVERED
  MAY BE KILLED. IN ADDITION…FROST COULD ALSO FORM IN PASTURE LAND
  AND FARMERS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE THE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED

with dewpoints in the mid 30’s and light winds temps should tumble into the 35-39 range overnight leading to some frost. The Lexington metro area is also of concern with this frost threat. Bowling Green area this will be a non event.

1. On monday clouds will increase with overrunning rain and thunder along a warm front which will last into Tuesday morning highs should be around 60 to the low 60’s tomorrow.

gfs for mon pm

2. The warm front will bring in surge of warm and moist air with it with the cold front not to far to our north scattered thunderstorms may redevelop Tuesday afternoon and evening. right now this looks like another marginal set-up for severe weather with only scattered coverage and morning cloud cover being limited factors. Tuesday will be much warmer with highs near 80 and lows near 60. Even though the set-up is marginal the spc has the region in a slight risk for severe storms.

gfs tue pm

spc tue outlook

…OH VLY…
   IT IS UNCLEAR ON THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE CDFNT
   ACROSS THE OH VLY ON TUESDAY…BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST UPR
   50S/LWR 60S DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY AFTN.  IF HEATING CAN
   MATERIALIZE…SET-UP WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT INTENSIFYING STORMS ALONG
   SRN FLANKS OF MORNING ACTIVITY OVER NRN OH AND CNTRL IND DURING THE
   AFTN.  ROUGHLY 60-70 KTS OF WSW MID-LVL FLOW ATOP SWLY LLJ OF 40 KTS
   WILL BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
   EVOLVE INTO A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL WEAKEN DURING
   THE EVENING OVER THE OH VLY.
  
3. The frontal system should stall to our north for Wednesday as we await the next cold front by late week. The main question I have is if Kentucky can get more firmally in the warm sector with ridging developing in the southeast or will our region be close enough to where thunderstorms along the boundary will be the rule. Right now the ECMWF has us on the edge of the fronts influence with the GFS producing thunderstorms. Severe weather would once again be possible if we are close to the front the 12z nam sounding is explosive for bwg  with a CAPE ( or potential to produce severe storms in a nutshell) near 2400 (1500 is the min for a severe threat on average) on Wednesday with the gfs having a very conservative outlook on any severe chances.  Once again I’m taking a cautious approach with this chance thinking marginal but i think it has more chance than Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be summer days temps wise in the 80’s with warm and moist southerly flow.

4. By the end of the week another cold front approaches likely with a squall line of thunderstorms timing will determine the severe threat. hvy rains are possible but convection placement will determine where and if flooding becomes a concern again.

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3 Responses to “Another active week ahead”

  1. mitchg Says:

    old images have been removed.

  2. mitch Says:

    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    1227 PM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010

    …GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON…

    .SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
    THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY…CLIMBING TO
    AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. IN ADDITION…OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN
    BE EXPECTED.

    KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-112200-
    /O.NEW.KJKL.LW.Y.0006.100511T1627Z-100511T2200Z/
    FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
    JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
    ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
    OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLEMINGSBURG…MOUNT STERLING…
    OWINGSVILLE…MOREHEAD…IRVINE…STANTON…FRENCHBURG…
    MOUNT VERNON…MCKEE…SOMERSET…LONDON…MONTICELLO…
    WHITLEY CITY…CORBIN…WILLIAMSBURG…BARBOURVILLE…
    MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…SANDY HOOK…WEST LIBERTY…
    PAINTSVILLE…CAMPTON…SALYERSVILLE…PRESTONSBURG…
    BEATTYVILLE…JACKSON…HINDMAN…BOONEVILLE…HAZARD…
    MANCHESTER…HYDEN…WHITESBURG…INEZ…PIKEVILLE
    1227 PM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010

    …LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
    ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

    * WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER…
    WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE BACK DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
    SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

    * SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES…WITH
    OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AS WELL.

    * THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES FOR BOATERS
    AND ANYONE PARTICIPATING IN RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES. THE GUSTY WINDS
    WILL ALSO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MOTORISTS…ESPECIALLY
    THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

    severe threat

  3. mitch Says:

    still keeping an eye on the severe threat even though spc has no risk area for our region.

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