severe thunderstorm outbreak Saturday: how far north will it go???

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here’s the latest from the spc my main concern is for Saturday.

notice the hatched area over the tenn valley this is where a the best chances for destructive severe weather are it does extend close to the Bowling green area. The rest of the region has a regular slight risk for severe storms.  I expect the hatched area to be raised to a moderate risk tomorrow.

here is the SPC outlook

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD…WITHIN AN
   AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY THE MS RIVER ON THE W…THE OH VALLEY ON THE
   N…AND THE APPALACHIANS ON THE E.  WITHIN THIS AREA…A
   MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND FIELD
   SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE
   POTENTIAL…INCLUDING HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND SEVERAL TORNADOES.
  
   WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION FORECAST DURING THE PRIOR FORECAST PERIOD…A
   SOMEWHAT COMPLEX SCENARIO WILL LIKELY EXIST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
   THIS PERIOD.  HAVING SAID THAT…ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT
   WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INVOF THE MS/TN
   VALLEYS…AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
   SEVERAL WAVES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   SMALL-SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST/CYCLONIC SWLYS
   ALOFT. 
  
   WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT BENEATH RAPIDLY
   VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT…BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROBUST/POTENTIALLY-TORNADIC SUPERCELLS…AIDED BY
   MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  WITH TIME…THE OVERALL THREAT AREA WILL SHIFT EWD…AND
   WHILE A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER NRN PORTIONS
   OF THE AREA INTO THE OH VALLEY…SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
   LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF TN AND AL…AND
   EVENTUALLY WRN GA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

nam radar

– scattered showers and thunder through friday with highs in the 70’s.

friday night

– one batch of showers and storms with a few severe storms is possible overnight

Saturday morning

thunderstorms strong to severe will be developing saturday morning to our southwest. these thunderstorms will produce tornadoes, very gusty winds and hail. supercells are also likely ahead of the main squall line.

saturday afternoon the squall line and supercells race ne toward southern ky

strong to severe storms in progress sat night.

Keys to the outbreak:

– where does the low track??? right now a track from western Kentucky into southern Indiana making severe weather likely in southern ky and much less likely to the west and north of the track (LOU area).

– how much thunderstorm activity sat am??? this will limit the instability and create debris clouds which would further limit convection.

here is map the highest threat is the slight to mod zone, my thinking is some scattered supercells saturday afternoon over the bowling green area which move into the lexington, jackson areas by late afternoon. The main squall line comes through from dinnertime to mid evening. damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are possible. make sure to review your severe weather plans to prepare for the first widespread severe event of the year. \

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2 Responses to “severe thunderstorm outbreak Saturday: how far north will it go???”

  1. mitchg Says:

    southern ky now in moderate risk based on the day 2 outlook we could be looking at a rare hgih risk event centered on the tennessee valley on sat.

  2. mitchg Says:

    high

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