drought update


latest seasonal outlook

United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge

US Drought Monitor, April 13, 2010

parts of Kentucky have officially entered a moderate drought.  bottom line is we need rain. Also my idea of a transition from el-nino to la-nina by late summer still has good merit, analog years with this combination have had hot and dry summers.

I’ll update the severe weather threat this weekend in a day or two, threat is still there based on Tuesday’s 00z runs.


6 Responses to “drought update”

  1. mitchg Says:

    I disagree with the stance in lmk’s discussion today. the spc is tending toward my thinking for day 5 for southern parts of the region there long range outloooks do not include the 15% zone which will surround the 30%+ zone.


  2. mitchg Says:

    modeled lifted index has fallen from from -6 to -2 the last few model runs, -2 is much more in the marginal range for severe weather than -6. the spc has areas sw of bowling green in a 30% for day 4. Right now the key appears to be if morning convection will occur saturday morning ahead of the main batch of thunderstorms.

  3. Seth Says:

    Hey Mitch,

    Do you think this possible la nina will last through the rest of the year?

  4. mitchg Says:

    week la nina into winter 10-11 as i see things now, good question Seth. Could be another good one for snow if that happens. Drought should get worse this summer.

  5. mitchg Says:

    LI back to -5 on 18z gfs. severe threat still ligit for Sat. I would not have any outdoor plans either way periods of thunderstorms are likely.

  6. mitch Says:

    lex and bwg southeast likely to have best chance for severe weather saturday. bwg in a hatched 30% zone for signficant severe weather, based on the language in the spc outlook i would expect the hatched area to be upgraded to moderate risk in future runs.

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