thunderstorm chances this week

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Our first chance of thunderstorms will be on Monday with a weak boundary approaching from the west and a warm front coming north. There should be enough lift along the boundaries to produce a mcs thunderstorm complex late tonight which will track southeast into the region Monday morning. However indices  and the amount of instability are only marginal for strong to severe storms. Even with the likelihood of showers and storms across the region any strong storms should be isolated with the thunderstorm complex.

here’s a radar timeline of the mcs

after a warm and windy Tuesday in the 80’s. We await the arrival of a squall line along a powerful cold front which should sweep through Wednesday night. Warm air advection ahead of the front should be able to supply ample moisture into the region and if we have an afternoon or evening squall line enough instability should be present for this squall line to produce strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds. If a low pressure can form along the front to our northwest Wednesday night  which some of the modeling suggests some tornadic activity would be possible as well.

to recap my forecast if i was the spc

Monday see text

Wed/Thur slight which could get upgraded to moderate

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One Response to “thunderstorm chances this week”

  1. mitchg Says:

    the spc has upgraded the lex area to a slight risk this afternoon scattered storms are finally delevoping along the warm front.

    SRN INDIANA TO WRN KY…
    15% PROBABILITIES EXTENDED ESEWD ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE
    ACROSS THIS REGION. VIS SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE INCREASING
    COVERAGE/DEPTH OF TCU IN THIS CORRIDOR…IN ENVIRONMENT THAT
    MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY WEAK MLCINH AND
    MLCAPE COMMONLY 1500-2000 J/KG FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 23Z. VWP AND
    FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR WITH EFFECTIVE VALUES
    AROUND 50 KT OVER SRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA…TO 35-40 KT ACROSS ERN
    KY. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH — EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
    AND VWP/PROFILER DATA OVER NRN MO…ALSO WILL MOVE TOWARD THIS
    REGION DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH RELATED SUBTLE INCREASES
    LIKELY IN BOTH MID-UPPER GRADIENT FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE
    ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT

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