recap of meteorological winter 09-10

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Thursday we should have some more sunshine than today with highs in the mid 40’s. While Friday will finally see a high pressure system to move north of the region allowing for an influx of warm southerly winds and mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 50’s. 60’s are still likely by the weekend.  The latest model runs instead of sending a low into the lakes with surface ridging in place as indicated the other day are becoming replaced with a cut-off low solution for the region which would mean clouds and a cold rain, maybe even snow?? next week. I’ll follow up on this Friday.

2. In the mean time I will recap winter 09-10 across the region.

Overall this was a cold and snowy winter for the region which was hinted at before the season started on here. The main feature this winter was not the el-nino but the AO (arctic oscillation) which tanked negative several times to leading to cold airmasses building into the eastern United States and with the active el-nino storm track we were able to see several system which produced snow here in Kentucky. With top 5 winters for both snow and cold in Covington and Jackson. AO values this past winter

The Stormtoppers at WKU ( author: Ronnie Leeper) have put out analysis maps of a few storms that impacted the region this winter using KYSIS. click here and scroll down to see the event maps.  

Here are the final winter stats at Bowling Green from the nws. We were 2.2* below normal, precipitation was also below normal. However snowfall was 15.4 for the winter which was 6.5 inches above normal. nws winter recap  Lexington was 4.2* below normal with 23.7 snow which is 12 inches above normal. Jackson was even colder with 50 inches of snow for the winter.

Looking ahead I think it will be a slow transition throughout the rest of March with a mild April compared to normal. The first part of the summer should be near to slightly below normal as the el-nino continues to collapse. However by late summer a neutral signal or even weak la-nina may set-up which may signal a hot and dry finish to summer.

Overall My view is although it was cold and snowy we missed on a few chances to go for a record winter snow wise like other parts of the state did just missing out n a few systems this winter like the one early this week or the clipper back in early January. However in the end we did see about 150% of normal snow making  it hard to complain.

How did my winter forecast stack up???

I issued this before the winter started

for Kentucky

snow:  above normal take the avg + another 50%

precip: near  normal

temps:  4* below normal ( most spots right around this vallue, bwg warmest 1.8* off)

– one ice event over 1/4 inch and another of 1/10 inch regionwide ( didn’t get this, not complaining)

snowfall totals for ky cites ( using national avg table * 1.5 get 150% of avg)

Lexington/Versailles- 24 in  actual 23.7 inches

Louisville-  25 in actual 21.3 inches

Jackson- 32 in actual 50.3 inches

Covington 35 in actual 38.4 inches

Paducah/ Bowling Green 17 in actual 15.4 inches

not to far off for most places with more than forecasted at JKL.

overall the main idea was nailed head on this site for a cold and snowy winter with el-nino not being the main act this was clearly seen this winter, so I feel pleased about this outlook panned out giving it an A.

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One Response to “recap of meteorological winter 09-10”

  1. mitchg Says:

    euro model showing a decent snow event here mar 14 and mar 15. not a good sign for spring. If it’s cold snow, if it is not going to snow then 60* is fine with me, no more 40* rain/clouds.

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