winter coming back

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1. Tuesday will be another cloudy one with patchy drizzle and flurries with highs in the low to mid 40’s. For Wednesday and Thursday a disturbance shown here at the 500 mb level  coupled with a surge of colder air into the region will lead to some snow showers across the region with the highest chances north and east of Lexington, a little upslope may give se ky a touch more. For most of us a lot of coatings with trace or 0 amounts southwest of the Lexington metro with up to 2 inches far se ky and an inch for several spots near cvg, jkl and Ashland.  Highs both days should be in the mid to upper 30’s across the region.

500 mb level map

the disturbance from the north is also merging with a low moving up the east coast which should form a nor-easter which stalls in place. For us this means a trough that will tend to suppress storms will be in place through at least the weekend.

take a look at the weather over New England!!!

Highs from Friday through Monday should be in the 40’s. The storm in the northeast should suppress a fri-sat low along the gulf coast due to the deep east coast trough though the 00z gfs tries to get lgt snow close to southern ky I think this is a miss for our region.  

00z gfs

lows at night should be in the mid to upper 20’s.

2. The 12z and 18z runs of the GFS committed the usual sins with the early march storm, suppressing it too much and putting too much into the northern stream. The 00z gfs is correcting overall this is a typical gfs error 5-8 days before a storm. However what has me a bit concerned about a snowstorm is the models may be getting a better handle of the noreaster hanging around longer which in turn keeps the storm track further southeast today’s 00z cmc shifted further east parell to the east coast but still brought light snow for areas south and east of a BWG to LEX line for Tue-Wed. The 00z gfs is 200 miles nw of yesterday’s runs but is still about 50 miles east of the cmc while the gfs ensemblemean has about .25 for southeast of a  BWG and LEX line with up to .5 further SE around Pikeville .  The 00z euro has also shifted east.

GFS ensemble mean qpf ( the average of about 16 00z gfs runs)

some give the region 0 others more than this mean.

current forecast track, hopefully this can pushed west over the next few days.

the light blue is chance for snow while the dark blue is snow likely.

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One Response to “winter coming back”

  1. mitchg Says:

    looking at some modeling that came today the cmc and gfs ensembles are leading the charge for a snowstorm early next week. the 12z cmc ensemble mean for qpf mon-wed is for .25-.5 across most of the state!!! operational gfs a southern outlier.

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