weekend forecast

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1. tomorrow the entire region will rise above freezing with some sunshine early then more clouds. This will allow for some snow melt as highs range from 32-40. tomorrow night we see some differences in the nam and gfs the nam is slower with the weak disturbance while the gfs faster and stronger.

nam

gfs

the nam would bring scattered showers saturday while the gfs would bring scattered snow showers changing to rain showers by Saturday. lows friday night should be near 30 with highs saturday into the 40’s for many places.

2. Our major player arrives for Sunday and Monday with periods of rain as the low tracks to our northwest. Don’t get to discouraged about this one many folks to the nw of the track will see frz rain with only a thin band of 3-6 snow, not  a major snowstorm as some are hyping this to be. Plenty of moisture and waa should occur ahead of the low allowing for temperatures to surge well into the 40’s with some low 50’s for southern ky. I could see some areas getting from 1/2 to 1 inch and with rapid snow melt for a large portion of the area some minor flooding issues are likely. Enough marginal cold air may be behind this system for some flurries Tuesday morning.  WE WANT THIS SYSTEM TO GO NORTH TO AMPLIFY THE JET FOR THE NEXT STORM!!!!

3. That will be the key to the late week storm which I still think has more promise. I’m thinking of a low which moves into west texas and tracks through the deep south before tracking up the east coast along a boundary left by the first storm . Right now there several things that could keep this suppressed with the arctic jet getting involved so setting up the boundary further north due to more jet amplification which would allow for a storm track further north and with cold air coming into play it’s a snow or to far south track deal. Overall there are still lots of differences between models and even from run to run on this. This set-up is similar to the first week of december which had a warm low that tracked overhead followed by a secondary low to our southeast which followed behind the first system and led to snow over the east which was not picked up on by the models untill 3 or 4 days out.

4. I have less school work and no imminent winter threats so may have enough time to issue a brief preliminary spring/summer outlook for you all later this weekend.

5. This is also Olympics season GO USA!!!

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3 Responses to “weekend forecast”

  1. Seth Says:

    Seems like that is exactly what this upcoming storm is doing! Going north.

  2. mitchg Says:

    navy nogaps model showing a snowy wednesday from the secondary with rain east this is the solution I like right now but the nogaps is a little to far west and fast with the secondary, the other extreme. BUT we have this wed-thu system on the table now. I dont’ agree with this morning’s runs of the euro and cmc which try and cut-off the energy into a bigger event next weekend. The big storm should bring march in like a lion mar 1-4th. This showed up well on the 12z gfs.

  3. mitchg Says:

    18z gfs run very close to my line of thinking showing more snow for wed-thu as well.

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