Sunday-Monday clipper

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A strong clipper will dive southeast from the plains into the tenn and ohio valleys bringing with it the likelihood of snow Sunday and Monday. Right now  the northern track suggested by the gfs 00z and the southern track suggested by the 00z Canadian. i will release my first forecast for accumulations tomorrow as slight shifts in the track can alter the snow forecast. As for snowfall this clipper will have a much stronger upper level low than a typical clipper behind the real center of the clipper which will act to enhance the snow on the backside.

gfs 500 mb map

The 00z gfs tracks the clipper further north through southern ky allowing for a mix with rain for a few hours then a dry slot to move through. The southern track of the cmc would keep the entire region in a steady snow throughout.

gfs snowfall map ( the cmc solution would yield more snow south of Lexington than what this shows)

 

00z canadain model

notice the next storm taking shape by the 19th with the southern branch involved as well, this is most likely another in this series of storms. I’m reducing saturday morning snow chance to flurries as it looks very unimpressive on tonight’s runs but adding a chance for snow showers on Tuesday with n to nw flow.

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6 Responses to “Sunday-Monday clipper”

  1. mitchg Says:

    a quick glance at the euro shows it may have shifted south from previous runs.

  2. tommy Says:

    i have seen about 3 or 4 strong clippers in my time, 2 were terrible busts in lexington, these tend to trend north the day of,

    • mitchg Says:

      the one i recall as being a bust was in the winter of 07 where gerogetown got 6 inches and lexington only about an inch.

      • Seth Says:

        Sometime in February I believe this happened. I think I remember Chris showing on his blog the nam and the gfs differing the day of the storm. The nam was showing the central kentucky cutoff. I remember the snow started during the day but dried out throughout the evening. I believe people were commenting on the blog how you could literally see the difference in snow on the northside of ironworks pike.

        Yeah, I have a good memory!

  3. mitchg Says:

    00z gfs

    cheers for snow- bowling green and somerset
    jeers for snow- covington

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