snowy and cold pattern continues

by

Central Great Lakes sector loop

we have one batch of snow overnight leaving eastern kentucky with another period of snow showers over Indiana dropping southeast. Where the snow showers fell tonight across most of eastern kentucky and in the Bowling Green area 1-2 inches of snow fell with lighter amounts where they were more scattered. This next batch overnight will likely only leave coatings for most of the region with maybe 1/2 inch in a few spots.  road condtions will cotninue to be very slick overnight with snow and refreezing, most schools already have closed for wednesday.

More snow showers are likely Wednesday with strong northerly winds up to 20 mph with lows in the mid 10’s  and highs in the upper 20’s will make for wind chills  near 0.  Both the nam and gfs are showing another .1 of qpf  from a Louisville to middelsboro line. ratios will be very high but the off and on nature of the snow may balance that somewhat so 15-20:1 is what I’m going with.  Here is the new snow forecast from the pre dawn hours (4am) into early Thursday, this does not include any snow that fell on Tuesday.

2. Thursday may not be as harsh with somewhat lighter winds and highs possibly reaching 30 across the region the sun should come out as well but with clouds and snow showers hanging out in the southeast.

3. Attention turns to a week clipper that will come through early Saturday and a storm which will bring snow to the deep south Friday into Saturday. Right now I expect clouds to increase Friday with some light snow Friday noght into Saturday morning up to an inch of snow could fall west of I-75 with the rain/snow line staying well southwest of our area. Temps may rise above freezing Friday but fall into the 20’s Friday night which may make for another slippery travel period. High pressure to the east will wash out the clipper as it comes east. Also the storm across the south has trended north bringing a light snow chance for the far south as well for areas like Somerset and middlesboro with some minor accums possible.

GFS fri night

NAM radar fri night

4. The main system that could produce decent and widespread accums is expected Sunday as low pressure tracks on Saturday from Valentine Nebraska to Kentucky by Valentine’s day. in the past 24 hours the models have come into good agreement tracking the low somewhere across the state with a band of snow to the north and west of it with decent wrap-around snows as well with very high ratios. To the rookie forecaster you would look at these two images and think there’s no problem south of the track for a decent snow.

gfs sunday

both the 850 and 540 lines are way south. However take a look at my concern, WAA which could pump temps well into the 30’s Sunday changing some areas to rain south of the track. Right now I think we can get away with an all snow approach and say the gfs is not showing  an obvious dry slot south of the low very well.  Remember this track will shift over the next few days. One thing that could make trend south a bit is the gfs is missing the amplitude of the Sat storm but the normal trend for clippers is a last minute northward shift.

GFS sun pm surface map

5.  we may get a few quiet days next tuesday and Wednesday before another system around the 19th.  The cold shows no signs of breaking up with an average of two snow decent snow chances a week through the end of the month and likely into the middle of march based on last weeks euro model’s weekly forecast.

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12 Responses to “snowy and cold pattern continues”

  1. mitchg Says:

    14 day forecast now updated in the pages section.

  2. mitchg Says:

    2.2 inches offical at bowling green tonight.

  3. mitchg Says:

    snow day!!! snow showers are numerous across the e-town and jackson areas now producing local accums up to an inch.

  4. mitchg Says:

    12z gfs has 4-8 statewide from sunday’s clipper (using 15:1 ratios again)!!!!

  5. mitchg Says:

    period of snow in se ky likely leaving up to an inch an hour which would put many locations over the 6 sugggested last night.

  6. mitchg Says:

    as for sun-mon the 12z gfs and the 00z euro are the furthest north with the nam, cmc and jma going further south and west. the gfs ensembles means show all snow as well for the south. right now a 4-7 band somewhere across the state appears to be a good bet if the more northerly 12z gfs is correct this runs on either side of 1-64 with 2-4 inches to the north or south of this band. If the southern track is correct then areas south of 1-64 into northern tenn would get the 4-7.

  7. mitchg Says:

    monday morning commute looks nasty. louisville now at 19 inches for my winter forecast was for 25 there. bowling green just over 13 for the winter forecast is for 17. It looks like most areas will see the forecasted snow at the start of the winter then some by mid march.

  8. trent Says:

    monday morning being nasty, do u mean ice rain or snow

  9. mitchg Says:

    snow trent.

    this is an intresting nugget from the nws in nashville

    A SIMILAR BOWLING BALL TYPE EVENT OCCURRED
    LAST FEB 28-MAR 01 2009 DUMPING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
    MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IN THAT EVENT THE LOWS TRACKED FARTHER SOUTH
    ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. AS I RECALL THE
    MID STATE WAS IN MORE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE. SOME AREAS OF
    SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE GOT UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

  10. mitchg Says:

    lexington now at 15.4 inches the normal is 15.7 inches.

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