may have underestimated saturday snow

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1. Thursday will feature an increase of clouds with highs near 40 as we await the next low pressure system which will bring northward periods of rain for Thursday night through early Friday afternoon right now even across the far north I see nothing that supports more than brief mixes with the cold rain that don’t accumulate through friday with temps over freezing and thickness values over 540.  There will be a dry slot friday afternoon.

nam radar fri pm

nam thermal profile fri am

note the 540 line well to our north this means brief mixes for the north which don’t amount to anything with lots of cold rain east winds and temps in the mid to upper 30’s.

however the upper air disturbance on the backside of the low looks stronger tonight on the models this will bring rain that turns very quickly over to snow some of it moderate to heavy at times if tonight’s moister runs are correct.

the nam brings this across southern ky

 

nam snowfall

notice some 4 and 5’s along the track the track of the low likely a bit to high but it may be on to something with the possbility of a pretty decent burst of snow.

gfs qpf from the upper air disturbance take off about .1 qpf which falls off as rain.

my first call for snow

this is highly subject to the track of the upper level low which will will change some over the next 24 hrs.

now on to the Tuesday event the 00z gfs does not have the correct solution, some of the gfs runs had a similar solution with the last snowstorm in this timeframe which proved not to be right. The gfs is also to fast with this. My thinking  now matches up well with the 12z jma from Wed. the euro has a poor track recorded recently and the candain as a flat low which i don’t think is correct either.

my forecasted track

I see two more storms on the horizon past this one, one late next week that may go south then another one the first half of the week after that. this will coupled with arctic blasts of below normal temps. meaning this pattern of below normal temps and frequent winter storms may eb the rule this month and for those of you still needing to get 150% of normal snow still for my snowfall forecast i put out at the beginning of winter there many more chances on the table.

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3 Responses to “may have underestimated saturday snow”

  1. MikeM Says:

    Is tuesday still promising? Sounds like it’s being talked down.

  2. Hope Says:

    Mitch, do you think this system for Monday has the potential for ice instead of snow?

  3. tommy Says:

    mitch the latest nam shows up to near 10 or 11 inches for me in cincy area!

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