the week ahead

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1. Monday will mostly sunny with more clouds late sw winds should allow the region to get into the mid 30’s for highs on avg after starting in the 10’s.

2. The one additional wrinkle is for a period of light snow or ice Tuesday morning along the va border counties from Pikeville to  middlesboro up to an inch of snow could fall with morning temps in the 20’s and highs near 40. no major issues are expected with this event. the rest of us will see mostly cloudy skies keeping local groundhogs from seeing there shadows which would give a prediction that winter is over. tomorrow we’ll see if my long term outlook agrees with the groundhog.

00z nam tue am

3. a mix of sun and clouds are expected for Wed-Thu with no arctic air coming back highs will be able to get into the low and mid 40’s.

4. a major storm will track from the gulf into the mid atlantic for us it’s to phase or not to phase.

If there’s no phasing then we see rain Friday and change to a quick period of snow Saturday morning flurries would follow from the northern system sunday, if there’s phasing rain develops friday changes into snow perhaps hvy at times and lasts into Sunday.

no phasing option

phasing option

the southern low gets drawn north by the northern energy and they phase east of the apps producing some rain which would change to hvy snow.

– the models are still days away from figuring this out, the slower the low comes out of the gulf the better.

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3 Responses to “the week ahead”

  1. mitchg Says:

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
    TUESDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
    ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
    TUESDAY.

    * SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND TRANSITION TO RAIN AROUND
    MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN…
    SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN…BUT MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.

    * 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED…MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000
    FEET…WHILE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE AN INCH OR
    LESS. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

    * SLICK AND OR SNOW COVERED ROADS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
    EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE POSSIBLY BEING AFFECTED.

    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
    CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
    ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING

  2. mitchg Says:

    LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
    MORNING…

    AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
    OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
    TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE
    PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA AND
    TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES. THE PRECIPITATION…IF ANY OCCURS…MAY
    FALL AS EITHER RAIN OR SNOW OR POSSIBLY A BIT OF SLEET OR FREEZING
    RAIN. IF PRECIPITATION FALLS…THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE
    CRITICAL AS TO WHAT FORM FALLS. AN EARLIER ARRIVAL WOULD FAVOR MORE IN
    THE WAY OF FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION WHILE A LATER ARRIVAL
    WOULD FAVOR ALL RAIN. AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
    COULD BE OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
    SNOW WOULD BE ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS. AT THIS TIME LITTLE OR NO ICE
    ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER…IT TAKES VERY LITTLE FROZEN OR
    FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE SLICK ROADS TO DEVELOP

  3. mitchg Says:

    radar trends showing this may come further north than expected

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