updated forecast

by

– the trend in the models today has been for a wetter solution. However as of the 12z runs I still have a few questions/concerns that could adjust my expected totals.

question 1:

how far north does the 540 line get? some of the 12z models have trended this north into South Central Kentucky.

12z nam

if the 540 line gets north of your place there is a chance that some sleet could mix in.

question 2: how much of the deep thunderstorm convection makes it north?

the 00z gfs really brought it north into south central ky while the 12z nam and gfs are in more agreement a little further south. If this deep convection makes it the southern part of the state totals of a foot can be realized. the other part to this question is that the snow may struggle to make north friday afternoon due to a dryer airmass in place across the north which may cause some virga.

question 3:  secondary upper level disturbance may still enhance snow Saturday morning overall I like the nam’s view of this feature which keeps snow going into Saturday.

snowfall maps

nam

gfs

my updated map

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9 Responses to “updated forecast”

  1. tommy Says:

    looks good, but radar is suggesting a more northerly trend

  2. Shane Says:

    Thanks so much for your thoughts Mitch, looks like we’re on a very similar page.

  3. mitchg Says:

    think nws is to low in spots they are more toward the sref and I’m more torward the cmc. winter storm warning south.

  4. tommy Says:

    let the fun begin

  5. marsha Says:

    Mitch do you think morgac will get some rain mixed in?

  6. Hope Says:

    Mitch, what time is the snow going to start falling in Madison County?

  7. mitchg Says:

    00z nam shifted south this is bad news for 1-64 areas.

  8. Hope Says:

    Mitch, does that include Madison County or is that north of I-64?

  9. tommy Says:

    lex may not see any accumulating snows at all,

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