Good news comes to those who wait and….

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expect the typical northward trend with the storm track from all of the 00z models. This afternoon the models have shifted south and now north again the usual back and forth cycle is now complete with additional upper air data available for this storm now which one would think improves model accuracy.

1. for many this now looks like one of the biggest snows in some time and with the northward shift once again  most of us should get in on the fun. here are the storm details.

– snow will overspread the region south of 1-64 Friday morning starting around 6am in Bowling Green and noon toward Ashland this first period of snow will last about 6 hours or so and leave 2-3 inches in Bowling Green and 1-2 inches for other areas south of 1-64 and around an inch elsewhere by late Friday Afternoon. temperatures will be below 32 allowing for roads to snowcover  quickly.  

– after a few hours break snow redevelops and a strong ne wind picks up potentially to 20 mph creating blowing and drifting snows snow ratios should also increase as temps fall from the upper 20’s friday morning to the 10’s for Saturday. This snow goes from mid afternoon friday through Saturday morning.

– the 540 thickness line I’m projecting to be over northern tenn, all snow.

– there will still be a sharp cutoff for those north of 1-64 with snow totals.

let’s look at the 00z models in detail

gfs

fri am

fri pm

I think it is to light on this 6 hr period with feedback problems to the south something to watch.

late fri pm

fri eve

– notice colder air building in and the isotherms tighting up.

sat am

total qpf

– remember snowfall ratios may be higher. I sometimes use snowfall maps put out by harris weathercaster which take into account snowfall ratios using a temp formula. here is the snowfall projection from the 00z gfs.

now on to the nam

fri am

fri pm

– note the nam in general is not as aggressive on Friday.

fri eve

sat am

nam snowfall map through 84 hr, the nam out further would have more snow past 84 hr.

now on to the candian which is the furthest north

this shows a 6-10 event for quite a bit of the region similar to the 00z gfs which a track farther north than the US models and the 540 line still to our south.

– the 00z euro track looks similar to the 00z gfs, qpf is unknown becasue they want to pay for that type of info.

now that things appear to be getting into line here is my updated call, which for areas along and north fo 1-64 makes me dizzy.

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7 Responses to “Good news comes to those who wait and….”

  1. Crystal Says:

    I love you for putting Pike in the 6-12 slot lol!!!!! Now just to get my husbands surgery over friiday morning and get him home. Mitch do you have any idea if it will be well under way Friday morning? Well hes very sick and severe pain he has to have it.

  2. marsha Says:

    Crystal I hope your husband does will and you get your big snow.

  3. tommy Says:

    12znam showing snow love to lex, esp south lex, with up to .5” and temps in the lower 20s we could fluff that snow up pretty good

  4. mitch Says:

    the earlier the better crystal may not start till 10 or so there though. tell your husband good luck with the surgery.

  5. mitch Says:

    snow map still looks good, 12z gfs has issues around 72 hr with the surface low in the gulf.

  6. marsha Says:

    Mitch is this thing trending south again?

  7. marsha Says:

    Mitch where do you think the WSW will be at this afternoon?

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