quick update

by

My weekend is very busy with a family reunion of sorts in RI and have had barely enough time to glance and the models from time to time. This included Thursday when i was not on the web to track the strong storms that formed due to the added instability.

1. After a period of rain and wind Sunday morning which i still suspect will call for a wind advisory some scattered strong storms form ahead of the main front if the sun can come out for a few hours to create more mixing of the atmosphere and more instability.

nam radar

2. the models are starting to show a potential winter storm thursday for the state with snow and ice on the table. There will model waffling on the models in the next few days and the ensemble spread is all over so don’t but into any model run. I’ll update this in more detail Tuesday. Check comments for more quick updates.

GO CATS #1!!!

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5 Responses to “quick update”

  1. mitchg Says:

    great discussion from nws lmk

    WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…

    …POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT TO AFFECT MUCH
    OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…

    AFTER ABSORBING MUCH OF THE 23/00Z DATA…AM STARTING TO BECOME A
    BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
    EVENT IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. LATEST 23/00Z GFS AND EURO
    SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SPLIT FLOW UPPER
    AIR PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
    PD. BOTH THE 23/00Z GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN INTENSE POLAR
    VORTEX (PV) ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND DROP IT THROUGH NE MANITOBA AND
    INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WED/THU…AND THEN SWING IT EAST INTO QUEBEC
    BY LATE THU AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS…A MID-LEVEL WAVE IS
    FORECAST TO BE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE FOUR CORNERS
    REGION AND HEADING EAST ALONG ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING DOWN
    THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE THREE FEATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
    TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE OHIO VALLEY
    IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AS USUAL IN THE EXTENDED
    PERIOD…THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO.

    FIRST…THE GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE MIDWEST WAVE DROPPING DOWN
    ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE PV. THE EURO IS A BIT STRONGER WITH
    THIS WAVE AND PHASES IT WEST OF THE MS RIVER. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
    GFS LACKS THE PHASE AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER AIR
    FEATURES. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
    AREA ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION.

    SECOND…THE CRUX OF THIS WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BE DETERMINED ON THE
    EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE PV DROPS AND IS LOCATED AS THE SOUTHERN
    AND MIDWEST SYSTEM APPROACH THERE AREA. THERE ARE THREE POSSIBLE
    OUTCOMES THAT I SEE HAPPENING. NUMBER ONE…THE PV SHIFTS FURTHER
    SOUTH THAN FORECAST…WHICH COULD THEN IN TURN PUSH THE SYSTEM
    FURTHER TO THE SOUTH KEEPING US COLD WITH JUST SOME LIGHT
    PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. NUMBER TWO…THE
    PV DOES NOT COME FAR ENOUGH SOUTH…WHICH RESULTS IN THE SYSTEM
    TRACKING FURTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION
    AND RESULT IN A PLAIN RAIN EVENT. FINALLY…THE THIRD SOLUTION
    WOULD BE FOR THE PV TO DEVELOP AND MOVE AS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
    MODEL DATA…WHICH WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
    THE REGION. RIGHT NOW…THE GFS IS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE EURO
    SOLUTION SO THIS HAS LED TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE EURO
    SOLUTION MAY BE RIGHT. IN THE PAST…THE EURO HAS REALLY
    OUTPERFORMED THE GFS IN THE 5-7 DAY TIME FRAME.

    SO…WE HAVE A PERIOD OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP. SHOULD
    THE THIRD OUTCOME MENTIONED ABOVE HOLD TRUE…THIS SETUP IS ONE THAT
    TYPICALLY BRINGS SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP TO OUR AREA…BASED ON
    OUR WINTER WEATHER COMPOSITE STUDIES. AT THIS TIME…I HAVE TRENDED
    THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE EURO AND GEM SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL RESULT
    IN INCREASING POPS MAINLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AM GOING TO
    KEEP WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY DRY…BUT THEN RAMP UP
    POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
    EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS
    SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOSTLY SNOW TO
    FALL WITH THE SYSTEM. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
    ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY THU NIGHT…BUT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
    EAST…A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LOOKS LIKELY. CURRENTLY NONE OF THE
    CURRENT FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ANY FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.

    TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WE HAVE STUCK
    CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND EURO RAW 2M TEMPS HERE. HIGHS WED/THU
    LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE PD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S.
    TEMPS SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT BY THU NIGHT FRI WITH TEMPS DROPPING
    INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S.

    &&

  2. Paul L. Says:

    Mitch,

    I am a geography student at the University of Memphis. I’m considering a change to meteorology and perhaps transfering to Western Kentucky University. I was going to see if it would be okay to email you some questions I have and maybe receive a little advice. Thanks!

  3. mitch Says:

    sunday update on storm will in be car all day going from RI to KY over 15 hrs so the earliest i will able to fully post is sometime Monday.

    -00z gfs sending out energy to quick at 84 hr very different from nam and others at 84 hr.

    as a result the model is underestimating the storm strength and is to surpressed.

  4. mitchg Says:

    sunday update on storm will in be car all day going from RI to KY over 15 hrs so the earliest i will able to fully post is sometime Monday.

    -00z gfs sending out energy to quick at 84 hr very different from nam and others at 84 hr.

    as a result the model is underestimating the storm strength and is to surpressed.

  5. mitchg Says:

    still expect a few gusty storms after the mian rain sun am

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