cold relaxing this week, somewhat

by

1. today flurries should still found across the region with low clouds thanks to this continued nnw flow off the great lakes bringing in just enough moisture. the cloudcover will keep highs in the low to mid 20’s today regionwide, where it cleared out last night across the extreme west the 0 theory worked well with lots of readings close to it from the mesonet sites, you can clearly see where it was cloudy and clear last night.

the entire region should clear out tonight thanks to the winds becoming more southerly also the wind will keep lows around 10.

2. Monday will see our sleeper clipper roll across Michigan with a band of light snow passing through the highest accumulations will be in the northeast part of the state however with highs in the upper 20’s and lows just under 20 slick spots will be possible from this period of light snow monday afternoon and night.

nam qpf

nam overview

– light snow spreads in late in the afternoon

snow turns more to a traditional nw flow snow shower event by late monday night

once again the  flow turns back to the n and nw which should keep periodic snow showers and flurries in the forecast through Tuesday with highs  in the upper 20’s.  Here is my first accumulation map for Monday and Tuesday.

This light snow should not be too much different from we had but may provide some more slick spots on area roadways and create some more snow days for the kids.

3. Wednesday and Thursday are warmer with high pressure moving east allowing for skies to clear out and the flow to become southerly with sw winds possibly getting to 10-15 mph this will allow for sunny skies and highs to get  into the 30’s Wednesday. Some forecasts have 40 however i expect much of the solar energy will go to starting the melting processes of the snow keeping the region in the low to mid 30’s with some upper 30’s and low 40’s south where there is less snow.  this matches up well with the raw gfs temps. highs by Thursday should crack 40.

4. All eyes turn to the gulf by late week into next weekend as the los pressure tracks to our south and up the east coast which is an ideal track for a big snow event here. However the cold air the storm has to work with will be limited especially aloft. early friday a weak boundary may be able to produce some freezing drizzle ahead of the storm. Most of precipitation however should hold off till next weekend.

12z gfs fri am

the euro unfortunately has a set-up which could produce signficant ice in the region with a high pressure over Michigan drilling in low level air into the region with temps and thickness values in the upper levels supporting rain. the euro temp forecasts aren’t available to the public without paid commercial access which I do not have so we have to work with what’s free.

the 12z gfs has a thermal profile which could provide a mix of all precip types not just rain or ice.

that would give the reion a mix of rain and freezing rain saturday night changing to wet snow sunday with several inches of accumulation. Every model and every run has been different so far and it will be mid week before a solution is settled on but for now there is the chance for a decent snow or ice event next weekend.

Advertisements

One Response to “cold relaxing this week, somewhat”

  1. mitchg Says:

    this system is underacheiving so totals will be on the lower side of the range.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: