high impact winter weather coming

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If you have been the cold the past several days I have some good news as temps may actually get into the upper 20’s Wednesday. However old man winter will be whipping up a new special featuring decent snows, cold, bitter wind chills and a side dish of blowing snow.  

An arctic front will have a long band of snow along it. There will be more forcingin the atmpsherejust to north of the track of the main low leading to higher snowfall rates to the south of the track a dry slot will cut off snow quicker. This means that there will be local variations in snow amounts by midnight Thursday night. let’s look at a timeline using the nam radar.

snow spreading near the low Wednesday night

Thursday morning commute

Thursday lunchtime

Thursday dinnertime

– the snow again will quickly accumulate on all surfaces and make things very slippery with conditions getting worse throughout the day winds will also be around 10 mph allowing for blowing snow as well.

nam qpf

this nam solution with 20:1 ratios would yield about 4 inches in Louisville and Lexington with about 5 in Covington, 3 in Bowling Green and Pikeville with 2 inches in Somerset by midnight Thursday night.

now onto the gfs solution which is not as aggressive with a dry slot across the south and strengthens the low pressure which may develop another burst of moderate snow over se ky  late thursday afternoon after the main burst has departed into Ohio. The gsf is also slightly lighter over the north meaning slightly lower amounts there, both models have a min of about 2 inches for Somerset where the dry slot is more in play and is missed by moderate snows.

gfs qpf

gfs thu dinnertime

I will be watching closely for the development of a secondary snow area behind the main batch of snow late Thursday afternoon which may enhance things slightly for se ky.

Here are my timetable maps

 

8am

noon

4pm

8pm

my forecast is for the low to track along 1-64 and fits in well with the nam and gfs as you can tell with the moderate snow along and north of it and a shorter period of snow with a dry slot to the south of it.

snow showers will be widespread  with a nw flow off the great lakes and a very favorable for a widespread upslope event from friday into Saturday. temps will be in the 10’s with strong nw winds making wind chills near 0 with blowing snow as well.

gfs qpf

this still looks like a 1-2 inch event with 2 to locally 5 more inches in far se ky for fri-sat.

After highs only in the 15-19 range sat lows sun am will likely fall to around 0 with a snowcover in place, with some wind chill values well below zero are possible.

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One Response to “high impact winter weather coming”

  1. Joseph Says:

    Well, a big disappointment to me since I am from Somerset. I guess 2 inches is now a blizzard for here. Oh well, nothing new here.

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