snow forecasts

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1. Today a large part of eastern Kentucky saw periods of light snow with an inch or two off accums thanks to a week disturbance and upslope this goes to show that it takes very little qpf and upper level energy to create an accumulating snow.  Tonight another period of light snow should spread in from northeast to southwest overnight the 00z nam now has measurable precip for the entire region now including lou and bwg with another 1-2 inches in the eastern upslope areas overnight. Again with lows in the 1o’s it won’t take much to create slick spots overnight and wind chills will frequently be in the single digits throughout the rest of the week.

NWS LOU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
326 PM EST MON JAN 4 2010

INZ079-KYZ032-033-035>037-040>043-048-049-056-057-050400-
JEFFERSON IN-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-JESSAMINE KY-
CLARK KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MADISON…BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…
FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…CYNTHIANA…VERSAILLES…LEXINGTON…
PARIS…CARLISLE…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…LANCASTER…
RICHMOND
326 PM EST MON JAN 4 2010

…SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS…

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THOSE COUNTIES EAST AND NORTH OF LEXINGTON.
WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS…SNOW WILL COVER UNTREATED AND LESSER
TRAVELED ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. ALLOW EXTRA SPACING BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER
VEHICLES AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

– the one difference I have is the expansion of coatings into lou and bwg here is the nam radar that shows it.

NWS JKL, winter weather adv for east ky

…MORE SNOW TO FALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY…

.FRIGID TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER EAST
KENTUCKY TERRAIN…AND A WAVE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE
AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO OCCUR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS AND AN IMPACT
ON TUESDAY MORNING TRAVEL.

KYZ050-058-059-069-051100-
/O.EXA.KJKL.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100105T2100Z/
MONTGOMERY-ESTILL-POWELL-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MOUNT STERLING…IRVINE…STANTON…
MCKEE
943 PM EST MON JAN 4 2010

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
TUESDAY.

* SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT
  AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
  CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. LINGERING
  LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON…ADDING TO
  ACCUMULATIONS.

* EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY DAWN ON TUESDAY… WITH AN
  ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
  TUESDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM
  1 TO 3 INCHES.

* THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SNOW WILL BE ON THE MORNING COMMUTE.
  ENOUGH SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL THAT ROADWAYS WILL BE
  COVERED…ESPECIALLY IF UNTREATED. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE DOWN
  AROUND ZERO DUE TO STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

– upslope will once again work to enhance this period of light snow and also allow it to last into the early afternoon out east. highs should be in the mid 20’s Tuesday after lows in the 10’s to start the day. On Wednesday mostly cloudy skies should continue with additional light upslope snow showers and minor accums and highs in the mid 20’s once again.

MY FINAL MAP for tonight

Now on to the bigger event this week for late Wednesday and Thursday. right now clouds should increase with snow overspreading the region from west to east Thursday morning areas from Lexington west will have a snowy commute with lows in the upper 10’s roads will develop slick spots and become snowcovered quickly Thursday morning. One thing to watch is the models have been trending faster with the onset of snowfall in recent runs. Right now projected relative humidity values appears to range from 70-80% at the onset of precip limiting my worry of this event being turned into virga, precip that does not hit the ground. 

 The set-up will be arctic front with a large period of light snow which expands from Minnesota into the heart of deep south with a general .1 qpf. However there should be a low which along the front which will increase dynamics and lead to higher snowfall rates and more liquid precip. Right now the 00z nam tracks this low along the Ohio river putting  us and areas further to the north in the favored region. The 00z gfs would put the whole region and even northern tenn in the heaviest snow band with a track across the ky/ten line. The nam is also slighty wetter however there is good agreement on the overall qpf. The main difference is if the track is further north a dry slot may be in place late Thursday for a few hours. I still expect snow ratios of 20:1.

NAM qpf  for wed night-thu eve

GFS qpf same timeframe

– this is only untill 11;59 pm Thursday night. Steady and widespread snow some of it moderate at times will end from west to east by dinnertime making for a really nasty evening commute with conditions getting worse throughout the day thursday across the region and temps still only in the low to mid 20’s.

first call on Thursday accums for now the entire region I’m expecting 2-5 inches Thursday with maybe a 6 thrown in for one or two of you. The highest amounts should be back in the plains where the low will be slightly stronger. 

 

The front will pass through Thursday night allowing lows to fall to around 10-15 and for nw winds to increase with the dry fluffy snow blowing snow will become likely adding to the weather hazards of this week, I expect steady temps friday only in the mid to upper 10’s with nw winds. Upslope nw flow snow showers should get going as well late thursday night and last into early Saturday. Once again areas in the east are favored but any slight changes in the expected wind direction may change where the highest coverage of snow showers is. Lows Friday night should be in the single digits with highs Saturday in the 10’s and nw winds. This will likely lead to below 0 wind chills as well.

gfs qpf for Fri-Sat, with temps even colder snow ratios may go 30:1 for now I’ll stay with 20:1. This would yield another additional inch or two for the bluegrass with some totals up to 3 or 4 additional inches in the southeast. again blowing snow cold wind chills and slick roads will all still be likely.

lows then may fall to slightly below zero Sunday morning if the region clears out.

Hazards this week

– blowing snow

– snow covered and slick roads

– ver cold wind chills

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One Response to “snow forecasts”

  1. tommy Says:

    i see no reason why the 4-8 would not continue to tail SEward

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