update on late week mess


1. This continues to look like a series of small systems for our region

2. This means on Wednesday clouds should increase with southerly flow picking up allowing for highs in the upper 30’s north to low 40’s south. I can’t rule out a sprinkle or snow flake in the morning for the bwg area however that could quickly lift north into Illinois.

Nam radar 1 pm

3. with strong warm air advection (WAA) temps could only fall into the mid 30’s north and upper 30’s south. this means light rain for areas such as bowling green, Somerset, and Pikeville. Further north snow will mix in but will not accumulate due to the back and forth nature of precip and temps over freezing this includes Covington, Ashland, Louisville and Lexington, look for mainly rain as each model run continues to trend warmer. qpf amounts only look to be around .1 from this. Drizzle will continue into Thursday.

4. The secondary energy moving northeast from the red river valley will lead to the development of a snow band right over Kentucky Thursday night. The models are still having a tough time pinpointing this. However a couple of inches could fall if the band forms far enough to the west, right the favored areas for advisory level accumulations are Ashland and Pikeville. After highs near 40 Thursday temps should crash quickly Thursday night with thickness values and 850 mb temps rapidly falling meaning mainly if not all snow from this precip. recent trends on the 00z runs are showing a weaker and further east low which would mean less snow.

nam thu eve

nam thu overnight

So far I’ll call this a dud the phasing never takes place and with systems going ahead of the arctic front instead of one ahead and another one phasing along the front. Well that is typical of the snow chances this decade.

on to the next decade which looks look to start with unseasonable cold.

On friday flurries should be flying with breezy nw winds and steady temps in the 20’s very similar to Monday.   Next week looks very cold with highs in the 20’s most days and several chances for mainly light snow, though there will likely be a more significant storm toward the end of next week.

6 Responses to “update on late week mess”

  1. james Says:

    Hey MItch. 18z NAM has trended colder quite a bit farther south with about the same amount of precip. Maybe a little more snow instead of rain for the Lex. area?

  2. james Says:

    GFS also a bit colder, but not as much as the NAM. Think the colder trend continues?

  3. mitchg Says:

    1. sleet to start due to dry air. no accums

    2. storm threat late next week

  4. mitchg Says:

    snow and sleet widespread thanks to evap cooling beating out waa for once. light accums on grass have been reported.

  5. vinny Says:

    ’bout time RA beat WAA….. lol

    Now, if we could only get a “98… (dreaming)… lol

  6. vinny Says:

    Should read:

    ’bout time EC beat WAA….. lol

    Now, if we could only get a “98… (dreaming)… lol

    Snow gots me all toe-up….

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