quick update for snow chances this week

by

1. Monday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid to upper 30’s. temp forecasts over the weekend were biased a few degrees to low due to more sunshine than expected and have corrected this for Monday. Some  scattered flurries may also be possible from a  nw flow disturbance.

2. Tuesday could very well be the only snow free day of the week with highs in the upper 30’s and mostly sunny skies.

3. The first wave approaches Wednesday night with light snow for the north and central and a mix for the south. Right now I’m trending toward the higher qpf nam solution which yields .05-.1 qpf north .1-.15 central and .15-.25 qpf south. This would translate to a 1/2 inch snow for cvg slightly over an inch for lex and about an inch in the south due to rain mix.Some model runs have had over .25 qpf such as the JMA while the gfs had nothing 24 hrs but is trending wetter with each run.

4. The second wave is of most interest  and should move into Texas thu with precip and strengthen as it moves ne eventually forming a east coast storm by late Friday. The model solutions still vary on this one quite  a bit but this is the best shot for more than light snow accumulations.

5. Snow showers are likely with n to nw flow with an arctic influx of cold with 20:1 snow ratios and snow squalls there is a potential for more accumulation with the highest amounts in the east.

6. check out the 14 day forecast  as well which advertises a well below normal period of temps at the coldest time of year. Dec should finish about 2 below normal temp wise.

Advertisements

8 Responses to “quick update for snow chances this week”

  1. raindome Says:

    As far as central kentucky goes, what do you view as more of a problem? WAA or thickness values to disrupt the snow?

  2. mitchg Says:

    both there is no doubt the modeling is trending warmer.

  3. mitchg Says:

    this is getting old, have to lower high temps to around 30 today due to cloudcover and cold air advection.

  4. marsha Says:

    So Mitch does this mean we will have rain and no snow?

  5. mitchg Says:

    more rain than snow through thu pm marsha.

    band of light snow to push through maysville, mt.sterling and ashland through 8 pm fresh coatings are possibile.

  6. marsha Says:

    Thanks Mitch It don’t suprise me at all no snow like a broken record week after week that’s what we have to look forward to the rest of winter oh well maybe next time. NOT……

  7. mitchg Says:

    light snow rapidly spreading south into jackson, morehead prestonsburg and pikeville. Slick spots will likely delevop in the next few hours. it would be nice if nws jkl would issue a short term forecast or sps no signs yet of one.

  8. marsha Says:

    Mitch they are never where we need them to be that’s why we need you ands Chris.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: