Light snow to start out next week, What about it’s end???

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1. We still have the grinch storm leftovers which will bring a period of snow showers tomorrow through the region lows tonight should be in the mid 20’s with highs in the mid 30’s sunday. As for accumulations temps will be near freezing and qpf amounts look rather low under .05 so it’s coatings for most with up to inch from any moderate to heavy snow showers. 

nam radar sun pm

nam radar sun eve

the majority of this snow shower action should be across the north. the main concern will be for slick spots sunday night when temps fall below freezing.

2. Monday should be windy and cold maybe a leftover flurrie or two with highs near freezing and gusty nw winds continuing.

3. by the middle of the week focus turns to a system forming over texas Wednesday the riding along the gulf coast and up the east coast to ring in 2010.  Right now I see this storm coming in two main waves.

Wednesday pm

Wednesday night

thursday morning

thursday night

friday

saturday

unlike the last system the thickness values should fall below 540 quicker and 850 mb temps are below zero on most of the models. However across the south thickness values are near 540 for the first wave wed pm- thu am meaning a mix of precip is possible there. By Thursday afternoon for the main part of the storm thermal profiles appear favorable for snow regionwide. Of concern is that the euro model is slightly warmer putting the 540 line over central ky for the entire first wave  which would allow for a mix further north. the euro thermal profile by thursday pm on would also yield snow for the second wave. this precip may begin as rain if it comes in Wednesday afternoon with surface temps between 35-38.

early details

– light precip forms over the region from west to east late Wednesday with a mixed bag of precip more snow north and a longer mix south

– break in action for a while Thursday before snow develops late

– snowy new years eve into the first part of new years day

– wind-driven snow showers into Saturday

don’t worry the details of the storm including qpf amounts and precip type for each region will be detailed as this storm gets closer.

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8 Responses to “Light snow to start out next week, What about it’s end???”

  1. raindome Says:

    The way you described this potential storm, it sounds very much like that winter storm we had in March 2008. I remember that the first wave was a rain/sleet mix followed by a sleet/snow to eventually snow wave. As of right now, could you see this new years storm panning out like that?

  2. mitchg Says:

    maybe it’s really to early to tell.

  3. Crystal Says:

    Mitch as look at it now are you just seeing a mix for eastern ky the entire time with no snow or a mix and then snow? Thanks

  4. Mitchg Says:

    crystal: this looks like a good snow event in pikeville with wave 2, mix with the first period of precip wed night.

    00z gfs heading toward this forecast. right now there is a shot at 6 inches or more for parts of our region from wed pm through saturday, don’t know locations yet.

  5. Crystal Says:

    Well thank you Mitch you are too kind and i dont know what we would do without you.I feel bad wishing for snow when one of our friends has had no power for 8 days now.

  6. mitchg Says:

    going to have to up temps into the 35-42 range today as clouds are slow to build in. the preiod of light snow is moving in later this afternoon.

    as for the late week system it’s complicated as the models are waffling big time I want to see the complete set of 12z models before updating the forecast on that.

  7. marsha Says:

    Mitch do you think Morgan Co will see much snow?

  8. mitchg Says:

    light snow band from louisville to owensboro now likley to give coatings as it moves east.

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