christmas storm taking grinch track

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this guy is loving the models solutions for the christmas storm.  

source: google

A track which several days looked promising across the south or even one low overhead then the formation of a secondary to the east would have produced snow for Christmas. However a lakes cutter appears to be most likely and for the snow fans and little boys and girls wanting a white christmas go to Minneapolis or Philadelphia, I’d personally go to the twin cities where you can shop at the Mall of America too and the snow is still falling on Christmas sorry I can’t help you this year.

the gfs and euro are now looking fairly similar, this solution to me is very surprising given a negative nao, ao and positive pna but hey sometimes the grinch rules the day.

00z gfs

light frz rain or rain starts tuesday night with showers wednesday.

By Christmas eve day rain is widespread and heavy a concern for areas that saw hvy snow flooding is possible.

the low heads into the lakes as the region gets dry slotted meaning just a temp drop behind the front behind the front and no snow showers.

however the grinch only comes for christmas and thid guy should be making a big comeback around the 29th.

to summarize

– scattered light precip tuesday night into early thursday

– hvy rain christmas eve with a warm up and some thunder

– windy christmas day with falling temps and no snow due to dry slot

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6 Responses to “christmas storm taking grinch track”

  1. marsha Says:

    Mitch, I hate Ky weather.

  2. MarkLex Says:

    Hey Mitch

    Here is my question. Why, if we’re talking about a potential snow storm from 4 days out, confidence is super low due to, well, it being four days out; yet when we’re talking about this, it’s almost a certainty at four days out? Just curious………:)

  3. MarkLex Says:

    Marsha

    I’m starting to as well!!!!! If we don’t get at LEAST a six plus inch snow this year I will be so PIsssssssssed! We’ll probably end up with ice. They say that’s mother natures way of pruning the vegetation….Well, we certainly have had enough pruning around here the last few years! LOL

  4. coloradotommy Says:

    yea the next few 5-7 days are going to suck for snow

  5. Mitchg Says:

    we seem to have a nw trend with each system this winter with the lakes cutters they look favorable for days 6-8 then trend nw each day so by day 4 the projected track is always well to the west. the systems that go east of us are nothing 6-8 days out then show up on the east coast for day 4 and then correct well to the west to give east ky snow. hopefully we can break this pattern of a lakes cutter followed by a east coast storm soon. The first chance to do this is the system on the 29th and 30th right now the depth of cold to the north appears to be greater with more blocking preventing a lakes cutter. Right now the 00z gfs tracks this to our south which is good given the likelyhood for a northerly correction in track. As for Janurary I think the storm track stays very active due to a decrease in the SOI and continued el-nino, those forecasts for a dry winter are not going to verify. The main question is the PNA index in my view the charts show it as slightly negative for chirstmas aka the storm track into the lakes, around last christmas the pna went negative and we had the lakes cutter storm track. If it can go postive then the storm track may shift in our favor.take the PNA so far this winter negative value around the 9th we had a blizzard into the lakes by the 19th the pna was postive and we had a east coast storm.

    as you can see for the 30th the pna is nuetral this teleconnection should give some early insight into where this system will track.

  6. Mitchg Says:

    question of the day:

    does the secondary low form after all which inb turn slows down the main band of hvy rain and allows the cold air to catch the back end for a period of snow christmas day?

    A: still looks unlikely however some of the model runs are trying to trend in this direction.

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