Winter storm update 9:00 pm

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– hvy precip in progress for most of us, some folks got a head start on the snow late this afternoon and already have a few inches you all will likely be on the higher end of my forecast for the rest of us like myself waiting for the changeover we may in the low to mid side of my forecasted totals. I have even seen reports of back and forth between rain and snow.

why is this?

– thickness values are just now falling below the critical 540 this should aid in the changeover to snow by late evening for everyone and after midnight in bwg

– tempertures of 36 and 37 are still a degree or two to warm, wait another hour or two for those to lower to 34 and 35.

I’ll use the RUC  model  to do a regional basis discussion

east ky including Jackson, ashland, somerset and Pikeville this does not include mt.sterling and morehead

we’re back and forth now in this zone expect a total changeover by 11 pm followed by snowfall rates of an inch per hour till 3am which will put a good 3 or 4 inches on the ground as you can see by radar precip rates are high. any snow you get before 11 am is likely what you will end up over 6 inches or inches if that is the start of my forecast for you. Another couple of inches should fall between 3 and 8 am saturday.

for the regions of lexington, frankfort, mt.sterling and morehead southwest to richmond and danville

rain should change to snow by midnight. A moderate band of snow should move from northeast to southwest in this zone between midnight and 2 am producing 1-2 inches of snow periods of lighter snow will continue to the morning with perhaps another inch by 8am.

for the louisville region

light rain will spread across eastern sections of the metro and have a hard time pushing west changing to snow after midnight additional areas of light snow will approach from the west giving the region around an inch of snow of snow by 8am sat with slightly  higher amounts west.

Bowling Green

changeover of showers to snow showers after midnight around 1/2 inch or so overnight.

RUC model images

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5 Responses to “Winter storm update 9:00 pm”

  1. mitchg Says:

    nam precip type maps fit in with my thinking.

  2. mitchg Says:

    TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS…WARMER
    VALUES OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND A LITTLE LOWER OVER THE CENTRAL AND
    EAST. COUNTY DISPATCHERS ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER…ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
    MADISON COUNTY…ARE ALREADY REPORTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX…AND LAPS
    SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THAT THOSE AREAS ARE IN FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
    TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL ISOTHERMAL
    LAYER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS REGION…INDICATIVE OF
    MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL. HAVE TWEAKED UP THE WEATHER GRID TO INDICATE
    THIS CHANGE. HOWEVER STILL HAVE FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE
    00-12Z PERIOD UNDER 4 INCHES…SO THE CURRENT ADVISORY IN PLACE
    LOOKS GOOD.

    DID HOWEVER DECIDE TO EXPAND THAT ADVISORY FARTHER WEST…BASED ON
    CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND AGAIN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BELOW
    FREEZING DOWN TO ABOUT 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SEE
    SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND AN INCH ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65. NOT EXPECTING
    THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE MUCH…AS THE SURFACE STAYS ABOVE FREEZING
    THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER SLICK ROADWAYS COULD CAUSE
    TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THOSE LEAVING FOR AN EARLY HOLIDAY.

  3. mitchg Says:

    nws lmk above

  4. Michael S Says:

    so Mitch…Here in Eastern Pulaski Co. we switched over to snow around 4pm..put down nearly an inch..then it switched back to rain around 7ish..think we might squeak out 2″ here ?

  5. Joseph Says:

    Yeah I had close to 1 and 1/2 inches just north of Somerset. We probably have about 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch right now after 1 1/2 hour of rain/snow mix. I hope we see another 3-4 inches, but after this evening it would not shock me to see very little.

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