winter storm update 12:00 pm

by

current radar

Central Great Lakes sector loop

thanks to nws

some of this will not reach the ground this afternoon and will saturate and cool the air at the same time known as evap cooling. hvy precip rates will also drop temps a bit which is known as dynamical cooling. Thickness and 850 mb temps should become favorable for snow as well after 7pm. my thinking is rain till then for all of us which a changeover at 7pm (00z) regionwide. earlier higher totals and lower totals if it’s later. The Bowling Green area will stay above 32 for almost all of the event leading to a reduction of snow totals there and a even tighter distribution of accums across the south.

notes

– qpf totals on the gfs and nam passed 00z tonight into sun am are still different

nam

 

GFS

I’m going w 10:1 ratios

my final map for accums  these may be a tad to low for the Lexington area is the only concern i have.

I’ll have another update 3:30 (video???)before going out to dinner for my birthday tonight. I should have the next update around 9 or so.

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4 Responses to “winter storm update 12:00 pm”

  1. rolo Says:

    if it aint changing till 7pm mitch they be no snow, maybe 1 -2 inxhes in eastern ky.

  2. tommy Says:

    happy bday and lets hope lex gets nailed

  3. mitchg Says:

    2 pm update

    1. evap cooling proceeding faster than expected with reports of snow already mixing in

    2. ruc shows the potential for some 1-2 in rates per hr this evening with thunder

    3. new candian more in line with the nam

  4. mitchg Says:

    12z ukmet looking good as well.

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