mid week storm update, new GFS coming!

by

A: 1. The forecast for the week is on the last post. Here’s an update on how i see this Wednesday and thursday storm.

– low pressure tracks from Houston right up the west side of the Appalachians to Pittsburgh.

– heavy rains spread from south to north Wednesday

– rain lasts into the evening and ends as a period of wet snow as cold air rushes into the storm for areas west of I-75 just before rush hour Thursday with minor icy spots and some coatings to maybe under an inch for those folks.

– we all experience periods of snow showers thursday with maybe a coating on the highest se ridgetops Thursday night.

let’s break down the model runs 

00z nam

 

rain is moving into our region around noontime Wednesday with severe thunderstorms in progress across the south, a mix of rain and snow is ongoing across the ozarks.

by midnight periods of rain and even thunderstorms have moved through the region as the low tracks up I-75. however notice a dry slot feature when the cold air comes in this could limit any wrap-around snows just to the west of the track.

by thursday morning a quick hitting period of snow impacts areas from 1-65 west to St.Louis winds will also be increasing from the nw.

00z GFS

not much different than the nam at noontime Wednesday

This shows a track just west of the apps allowing for areas west of lexington to have the changeover to a period of snow early Thursday.

bottom line

– cold rain Wednesday

– rain to snow late Wednesday night from west to east,  

– snow showers thursday

– total accums through friday under 1 inch on grass with any slick spots minor.

B: there is an updated version of the GFS which will replace the current GFS later this month on the 15th.

more details click here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

reading through i think it is a much needed major overhaul of the model. by the way this version of the model is running online.

link

 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/00/model_s.shtml

I would also suggest if you did not like the long range run of the old gfs you look at this one as past 144 hr it is quite different and more in line with my thinking. If you don’t want to look at it there’s always the 14 day forecast which I will be updating shortly.

 

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3 Responses to “mid week storm update, new GFS coming!”

  1. mitchg Says:

    MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH THE STORM TRACK
    MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
    MANUAL GRAPHICS STAYED AWAY FROM THE FAST OUTLIER…THE 00Z/GFS
    WITH THE SFC LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
    VALLEY AND SIDED MORE SO WITH THE 00Z/CANADIAN-ECMWF AND 21Z SREF
    FOR THE SNOWFALL DETAILS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
    THIS SCENARIO TAKES THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OUT OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
    QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF DAY 3.
    NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
    MIDWEST ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM…ALLOWING FOR
    A BRIEF WINDOW OF MODERATE SNOWFALL AND PATCHES OF 2-4 INCH
    SNOWFALLS ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI…THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
    TO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE…INCLUDING A SMALL PORTION OF
    SERN MO/WRN KY/SRN IL/SERN IN AND WRN OH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
    SYSTEM AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS WHISKED AWAY BEFORE THE
    COLDER AIRMASS CAN COMPLETELY TURN THE THERMAL PROFILES OVER TO
    ALL SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…WITH ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL
    ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
    ARKANSAS.

    that from the hpc, I dissagree with there thinking that parts of ky may see 2-4 inches.

  2. mitchg Says:

    however saturday is looking more intresting now on the gfs.

  3. coloradotommy Says:

    2-4 maybe west of 65

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