forecast for the next few days

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1. Your weekend is shaping up nicely across the region with southerly flow and plenty of sunshine which will allow highs to get into the low and mid 50’s after morning lows near 30.  apologies for no post last night, I was working on revisions to my thesis proposal, now that the second of likely three revisions is done i have a free weekend for a change!

2. This will be ahead of the next frontal system, our much talked about dec 1 storm. The front should spread clouds into the area Sunday afternoon with a few periods of rain showers late Sunday and Monday. the majority of energy with this system will cut-off in the gulf of mexico leading to the main show later in the week. On the last post several days ago i was skeptical about the cut-off solution however this is now clearly shown by all of the models.  with this frontal passage Monday I don’t expect temps to rise much after falling into the lower 40’s sunday night, winds will pick up out of the nw as well.

3. Tuesday should be a cool sunny day behind the front in nw flow with some wind and highs in the mid 40’s, a typical winter day to start meteorological winter on the 1st.

3. Wednesday is when the cut-off low out of the gulf lifts north spreading rain and overcast skies into the region as morning temps stay in the upper 30’s. Rain should become hvy at times ahead of this low pressure Wednesday afternoon with highs only in the mid 40’s. The next blast of cold air then tries to catch the precip shield. This will likely result in a period of snow or snow showers late Wednesday night into Thursday Morning with strong n winds as temps fall to near 30.

4. Thursday should see some scattered snow showers continuing with quite a few spots picking up a coating.

5. The long range is tripping up the models at this point as some new factors come into play, however they indicate a trend toward a much colder pattern coming.

– the recuriving of typhoon niki, cases such as these can lead to east coast troughs

– the MJO has become more favorable for sustanied cold in the eastern US which can allow the polar vortex to move from sibera to north america.

– the AO and NAO are expected to go strongly negative

– the PNA is expected to stay around nuetral to slightly postive

 

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3 Responses to “forecast for the next few days”

  1. mitchg Says:

    strong waa and more sun than expected will allow for highs to reach 60 and the mid 60’s near bwg.

  2. mitchg Says:

    accumulating snow looking more likely from our wed eve system.

  3. coloradotommy Says:

    maybe, actually from lmk disscussion seems like a nice little swath of snow may set up for areas like louisville and covington

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