Bonus post: Dec 1 potential

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A quick post on the Dec 1 potential. Later today will be main post for the week ahead including increasing snow chances for thanksgiving and black Friday. However I’m becoming more and more intrigued about a storm around the 1st.

– all of the models as of this writing have a storm that forms along a boundary with cold enough air behind it to produce snow. Ahead of the boundary it will be way to warm for snow. The GFS has this system track over KY on the 1st with rain then snow showers at the end, Saturday’s Canadian has this stronger with a track that favors a warm rain for us. The 12z Euro is the best outcome for snow here that sticks which is shown below.

 We still have 8 days on this roughly, as we get closer to thanksgiving it should become known if we have a lakes cutter, Ohio valley cold rain track or some snow with a southern track. This may have a shot at being our first winter storm threat of the season though if I had to pick a side I’m leaning toward a cold rain over snow.

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4 Responses to “Bonus post: Dec 1 potential”

  1. mitchg Says:

    14 day now updated, loaded with snow chances.

  2. mitchg Says:

    OH Canada OH Canada!!! new 00z run of this model has a track up the east coast, would be snow for us on the 1st.

  3. tommy Says:

    climo says lakes cutter i say odds of southern track are 1 in 6

  4. mitchg Says:

    after a day of model fustration the 18z GFS has our Dec 1 snowstorm. full post later tonight.

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