odds and ends

by

1. I have no changes for sunday as highs should rebound into the mid 50’s after a chilly start in the mid 30’s for many of us.

2. over the first  part of the weekend I looked at some teleconnections to try to get a handle on the long-range pattern for days 6-10. for this period of the month i’m still expecting normal to slightly below normal temps with a trough in the east and a ridge in the west again with the ohio valley on the edge of the trough.

3. looking ahead for days 10-15 has been more interesting because several runs of the gfs for the second week of the month have gone to this at some point in this time frame. the Canadian and euro models are also showing more a trough for the day 10 timeframe as well but not to the extreme of this gfs image.

daytime highs below 30 on sunday nov 15.

not going to be that cold but i wouldn’t favor a spring preview here. But what if this trough does come and has more energy over texas to spawn a little storm to ride ne? it’s nice to dream.

-But the last november we could forecast snow of more than trace was nov of drumroll ……. 02-03!!!!!!!! when snow did accumulate before thanksgiving for some of us. So we have the cold threat for mid month which could set the stage for later in the month and we had some october similarities to 06-07. Both of these years were in the preliminary winter outlook for analogs.

– I will complete a final version of the winter weather outlook within the next few days hopefully!

– why do I bring that crazy gfs pattern up because as winter nears it’s time to bring back the 14 day forecast in some capacity likely updated every few days for now untill december comes around with daily updates of the 14 day forecast by the start of winter break.

 

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