winter preview coming

by

1. first we have two rainy raw days with ne wind not allowing temps to rise much and highs only near 50. i’ll be at bwg with a high near 53 very balmy and you folks in the NE only near 47 for highs both days.

2. these two weaker lows should form a nor’easter by friday, behind the nor’easter a strong blast of chilly air with dive southeast behind it into the ohio valley.

3. an upper level disturbance diving in with the cold will continue the overcast into saturday with scattered showers and a north wind with Canadian high pressure over the plains. temperatures friday morning should be in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s and temps will be lucky to rise into the mid and upper 40’s by days end. I still expect all rain friday but by saturday with lows in the lower 30’s and highs reaching the low to mid 40’s tops some snow should be able to mix in both early and late saturday. model thickness values under 540 are found with 850 mb temps  below the needed 0″c value, so we’re a go for a snow chance. IF we get a favorable upslope flow the highest elevations in the far se could get a patchy coating.

gfs sat am thickness

gfs sat am 850 mb temps

gfs sat am 500 mb height showing the disturbance

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