the week of big spreads

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I’m not talking about the buffet dinner you’re going to, by the way came I come? I’m talking about the weather week ahead for most of us as there should be quite a temperature and rainfall divide over the region this week.

1. monday should once again see the ugly overcast return with a start in the low to mid 40’s and highs making it on average into the lower 60’s. a period of rain is likely across the south late  with a sharp cutoff across central Kentucky while the north stays dry.

2. the skies should clear early Tuesday before another quick return of the overcast and the likelihood for showers and thunder regionwide by Tuesday night lasting through Wednesday. across the south temps should warm into the 70’s with only temps near 60 north for highs. lows will be warmer due to the overcast in the 50’s or upper 40’s.

3. let’s skip the clearing this time a much stronger low moves in for thursday with periods of rain overspreading the region in the afternoon some of which will be hvy and cause more minor flooding issues. this low in the wintertime would be a big ticket item with plenty of cold air to the north of it and lots of moisture but it’s still oct afterall. The track will still be critical to determine temps for the day south of the low and highs get into the 70’s with a added strong storm chance, north of the low and it’s downright miserable with steady temps in the 40’s. for now i see areas north of 1-64 not getting out the 40’s thursday with a sharp increase to the upper 60’s around the tenn border. a shift in my thinking of the track and this all changes, right now my thinking above is a blend of the 06z gfs and 00z euro on sunday. thursday could be on the windy side as well.

06z gfs

gfs_ten_108l

00z euro you get the other 9 days as bonus. notice how there is a track difference in the two.

4. friday this low should be along the east coast with clouds and drizzle around here and highs in the 40’s could be another windy one as well.

5. next saturday could see a set-up favorable for lake effect rain and snow showers with the aid of upper level energy and a n to nw flow with lows in the mid 30’s and highs only in the low to mid 40’s. something to keep an eye on. let’s hope the models aren’t advertising a false cold blast again, i don’t think this is case with both gfs and euro showing it well.

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2 Responses to “the week of big spreads”

  1. Mitchg Says:

    i see jackson now has a snow shower chance for this weekend. my thining is this comes from a weak upper level disturbance later saturday.

  2. mitch Says:

    tracking hot air balloon over Denver a lot of meteorological issues with this. hope the kid will be ok.

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