active friday

by

here’s my thinking

– models have not  intialzed ( starting hour) well, meaning at 0 hours there is already discrepancy. not good when predicting where these storms will go. the ruc (rapid update) was my model choice for this forecast, it has the advantage of being a short term model which updates every hour.

– band of  training storms along the ohio river with hvy rains this is slowly sagging south and east i mean very slowly. this should continue till about 6 am when it should retreat back to the north. the maximum point south around 6 am should stretch roughly along the bluegrass pkwy to lex then north across 1-64. areas nw of these lines will get hit by hvy rains throughout much of the overnight with 2-4 inch totals on avg.

– tomorrow morning this line will make a final push through the entire region but take all day and into the late night hours to do so. hvy rains again will set-up regionwide. a general 1-2 should be found.

–  scattered storms to severe storms will also be along this line throughout the next 36 hrs. the long drawn out stationary version of this front with se winds from the high sw low level jet and nw winds coming in behind some rotation is possible with these storms. gusty winds since this a squall line type feature will also be found.

– out ahead of the front gusty winds will be an issue as well with a wind adv east

– flood watch nw b/c of overnight rain expected, this should be extended further se

– warns and new adv’s will be posted below

‘- may have another bonus post during the day so check back!!

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15 Responses to “active friday”

  1. Mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN OLDHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    TRIMBLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…
    FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…
    JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…
    SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…

    * UNTIL 730 AM EDT

    * AT 130 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    THAT TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN FROM SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA
    AND NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FINALLY
    MOVED EAST OF THE AREA…MORE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
    QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THESE TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCERS
    WILL HELP CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE WARNED AREA.

  2. Mitchg Says:

    TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 765
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    320 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

    TORNADO WATCH 765 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

    KYC013-019-025-043-051-063-065-071-089-095-109-115-119-121-125-
    127-129-131-133-147-153-159-165-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-
    231-235-237-092300-
    /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0765.091009T1920Z-091009T2300Z/

    KY
    . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

    BELL BOYD BREATHITT
    CARTER CLAY ELLIOTT
    ESTILL FLOYD GREENUP
    HARLAN JACKSON JOHNSON
    KNOTT KNOX LAUREL
    LAWRENCE LEE LESLIE
    LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN
    MCCREARY MENIFEE MORGAN
    OWSLEY PERRY PIKE
    POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
    ROWAN WAYNE WHITLEY
    WOLFE

  3. Mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
    FOR EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON…NORTHERN LEE…ESTILL…WESTERN
    WOLFE AND SOUTHEASTERN POWELL COUNTIES…

    AT 410 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
    TORRENT…OR NEAR CAMPTON…MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
    HIGH FALLS…CAMPTON…GRANNIE AND PINE RIDGE BY 415 PM EDT…
    STILLWATER BY 420 PM EDT…

  4. Mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
    FOR NORTHERN LAUREL…NORTHEASTERN PULASKI…SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE AND
    SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES…

    AT 421 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
    ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHOP BRANCH TO PEOPLES TO CARMICHAEL…OR
    ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MCKEE TO 10 MILES NORTH OF LONDON TO 6
    MILES NORTHWEST OF LONDON…MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

  5. Mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHWESTERN LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHEASTERN MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 500 PM EDT

    * AT 422 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENWOOD…OR 10 MILES
    NORTH OF WHITLEY CITY…AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  6. Mitchg Says:

    get indoors now in west liberty gusty thunderstorm quickly approaching

  7. Mitchg Says:

    two storms have my attention now the bow ne of west liberty moving toward hunington and another storm moving ne toward jackson.

  8. Mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    BOYD COUNTY IN KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…CANNONSBURG…ASHLAND…
    SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK…
    LAWRENCE COUNTY IN KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK…
    LOUISA…BLAINE…
    WESTERN CABELL COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HUNTINGTON…
    SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA…
    NORTHWESTERN MINGO COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA…
    WAYNE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…WAYNE…BEECH FORK STATE PARK…
    SOUTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…COAL GROVE…CHESAPEAKE…

    * UNTIL 530 PM EDT

    * AT 448 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
    MARTHA…OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANDY HOOK…AND MOVING NORTHEAST
    AT 50 MPH.

  9. Mitchg Says:

    A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
    FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLAY…NORTHWESTERN PERRY…EASTERN OWSLEY…
    BREATHITT AND SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTIES…

    AT 505 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
    ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FIVEMILE TO CANOE TO DALESBURG…OR ALONG
    A LINE EXTENDING FROM JACKSON TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSON TO 12 MILES
    SOUTHEAST OF BOONEVILLE…MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

  10. Mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    457 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHEASTERN LAUREL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTH CENTRAL WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 530 PM EDT

    * AT 457 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEERING…OR 10 MILES NORTH
    OF WILLIAMSBURG…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

  11. Mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    WEST CENTRAL LESLIE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    EXTREME WEST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 545 PM EDT

    * AT 510 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
    EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
    FROM SACKER GAP TO HOOKER TO BUSH…OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
    9 MILES NORTH OF MANCHESTER TO MANCHESTER TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
    MANCHESTER…AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

  12. Mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
    FOR EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PERRY…NORTHWESTERN KNOTT…EASTERN
    BREATHITT…WEST CENTRAL FLOYD AND SOUTHERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES…

    AT 526 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
    ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MASON TO NOBLE…OR ALONG A LINE
    EXTENDING FROM SALYERSVILLE TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF HINDMAN…MOVING
    EAST AT 50 MPH.

  13. Mitchg Says:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
    HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL WHITLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    NORTHERN BELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 600 PM EDT

    * AT 519 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOFFORD…OR 2 MILES
    NORTHEAST OF WILLIAMSBURG…AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH

  14. Mitchg Says:

    …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
    FOR NORTHERN KNOTT…CENTRAL FLOYD AND SOUTHEASTERN MAGOFFIN
    COUNTIES…

    AT 556 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
    INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
    ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CORN FORK HOLLOW TO LANGLEY…OR ALONG A
    LINE EXTENDING FROM PRESTONSBURG TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF PRESTONSBURG…
    MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  15. Mitchg Says:

    squall line moving into far se ky expect very gusty winds and small hail and frequent lightning areas to be impacted include pikeville, middelseboro and whitesburg

    confirmed ef-2 tornado in casey county

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