wet and wild pattern coming

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1. we should have a period of rain friday morning ahead of the next cold front with highs from 64-72 across the region. I expect there to be sunshine west in the afternoon. winds out of the south early should shift to nw throughout the day.

2. by saturday the main area of low pressure is over the great lakes with ky in the backlash nw flow which may bring extensive stratus clouds and some sprinkles throughout the day highs will stay in the 60’s most of us on the low side.

3. sunday will be the calmest day of the forecast with mostly sunny skies and a transition between high and low pressure systems leading to lighter winds. highs should range from 64 to 72.

the upcoming pattern is next week

– very wet with periods of hvy rain next workweek  likely from a very slow moving front combined with overrunning and tropical leftovers from the pacific. this front may push through then come back north as a warm front then push southeast again. I will have several diagrams going over this on sunday’s post.

– it could then turn cold according to some of the operational model runs around the 11th. The cmc and 12z gfs really bring a shot of cold. the euro has a typical bias for this model of having the cold stopped up in the west. However of most interest is that there is some ensemble support of this outcome as well.

take a look at our first gfs snow chance of the season this 12z forecast would yield temps in the 30’s and snow showers for the 11th.

gfs_ten_264l

 

when looking at the map for oct 12, 2006 in class today it was very similar to this one for oct 12, 2009 . umm where else did i use a similarity of 2006?????

My  winter weather outlook has an analog year of 06-07 so if the gfs is right with a cool shot (Lexington was actually near 50 on oct 12, 2006) then we’re on track through oct 12 with an analog of 06-07 .  for a bonus section of this weekend’s post let’s take a look at feb 07.

here is the nws summary for the first part of feb in Lexington

1  31  25  28  -5  37   0    T    T    T  3.1 13 230   M    M  10 18     17 230
2  28  13  21 -12  44   0 0.12  2.2    1  7.6 17 280   M    M   9 18     22 290
3  30   8  19 -15  46   0 0.00  0.0    2 12.1 26 250   M    M   3        37 270
4  21  11  16 -18  49   0 0.01  0.7    1  9.2 20 250   M    M   5 1      25 270
5  17   1   9 -25  56   0    T  0.4    1  6.4 17 320   M    M   3 1      22 320
6  24   6  15 -19  50   0 0.05  0.3    1  5.7 15 130   M    M   8 1      20 140
7  23  16  20 -14  45   0 0.00  0.0    T  5.8 13 350   M    M   6        16 340
8  25  11  18 -17  47   0 0.00  0.0    T  5.0 12 310   M    M   3        15 310
9  28  11  20 -15  45   0 0.00  0.0    T  3.5  9 290   M    M   3        13 300
10  28  13  21 -14  44   0 0.00  0.0    T  3.8 12 310   M    M   3        15 320
11  33  11  22 -13  43   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.4  9 190   M    M   7        12 210
12  42  26  34  -2  31   0 0.28  0.0    0  6.9 13 130   M    M   7 1      16 130
13  38  27  33  -3  32   0 0.89    T    0 10.4 21 320   M    M  10 16     25 320
14  27  13  20 -16  45   0    T  0.5    T 12.0 22 320   M    M  10 168    31 320
15  25   8  17 -19  48   0    T    T    T  3.4 13 310   M    M   2        17 300
16  26   6  16 -21  49   0    T    T    0  8.1 14 190   M    M   2 8      20 230
17  30  21  26 -11  39   0 0.07  1.8    T 11.5 23 320   M    M   9 168

the two left values are temps next to the date, there was almost 8 inches of snow in this stretch as well.  The one difference i see from 06-07 is the mild stretch instead of nov-  mid jan it should be from late oct into christmas. remember my winter outlook features a blend with 02-03 that has similar features in the tropical pacific. this winter was mild to start after the start of 03 things got cold and snowy. moral of the story is i still like what i had about a month ago for my preliminary winter outlook.

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One Response to “wet and wild pattern coming”

  1. mitchg Says:

    euro really bringing the cold for the 11th now while the gfs is going for a seasonal version of this.

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