a fall feel to things

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1. Quite a difference as instead of the muggies one feels a slight fall chill in the air, extensive clouds this morning should keep highs only in the mid 70’s west and low 70’s east. Tonight winds will become gusty out of the south in responce to a strong frontal boundry with very limited mositure. This boundry and the gusty winds along with clouds and a passing shower overnight should keep lows near 60 in many spots.

GFS image of the frontal passage around dawn monday morning

2. After this frontal passage the flow the backside of the low pressure shifts to nw. Winds will be gusty early but should decrease some throughout the day. we’ll still have a fair amounts of clouds and i don’t expect temps to rise that much throughout the day perhaps only into the mid and upper 60’s for most areas thanks to clouds and the nw flow. One thing to be careful of is forecasters in love with mos data, it usually busts in this set-up. Don’t worry this is a raw data only zone on my site.

3. Tuesday we should be firmly in this first candian airmass of the season with lots of sun under high pressure and low humidity. Clear skies will allows temps at night to tumble into the low and mid 40’s for lows and recover well into the 60’s for highs.

4. The core of this airmass should move east a bit but we will still be under it’s influence for wednesday and thursday with lows in the upper 40’s and highs averaging near 70 across the region.

5. Return flow and the next frontal system may lead to some scattered showers by friday and saturday. As of now i’m not impressed with rain chances from this feature and any showers look light. highs should be right aorund 70 with warmer lows in the 50’s due to expected cloudcover.

6. With my busy schedule as a grad reserach assistant and class schedule at WKU it’s hard to put 45 minutes in each day to do a huge post. I will still provide two or three of these often on sundays and thursdays. However I plan on making posts on other days more brief or sometimes just a quick remark about something.  The main acception would be for severe weather events. This will also allow me to have more time to make a better quality of post which is more polished.

first brief post ( monday or tuesday):  a Jan cfs temp map forecast that will make most of you smile!

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2 Responses to “a fall feel to things”

  1. raindome Says:

    I saw the CFS models on your site today and they are pretty impressive as far as snowstorms are concerned. Of course they’ll probably change and show a crappy winter tomorrow. But I do notice that the cfs has been fairly consistent in showing winter storms hitting kentucky around early and late november, mid december, and around new years. So does the fact that some form of winter weather has been appearing relatively frequently during these dates make it something to watch?

    Do you remember what the cfs was showing this time last year?

  2. Mitchg Says:

    as for the nov snow 540 thickness isn’t the end of all of it, doubtful the surface will be cold enough for snow. for later on maybe those dates will need to be watched. my map for tommorow or tuesday is different than the one labeled CFS model already on the site.

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