how the tides turn

by

1. This same trough, the same old leftovers of a tropical low which drifted through the south forever will continue to fire off periods of showers and storms on monday with very muggy highs around 80.

2. Instead of a major cool front for Tuesday with severe storms and a fall chill, (remember that gfs run that hinted at flakes several day ago) a front will move into the plains with the airmass more pacific in origin behind it. I also expect the low to cut-off in the plains. This means thunderstorm coverage should be fairly widespread in the afternoon and evenings across the region for Tuesday and Wednesday in  ahead of the front with southerly flow.  More muggy lows in the low 60’s and highs on avg near 80 as well.

3. we’re back into a zonal flow to end the workweek but the front may still be strong enough for an isolated shower thursday and the same old 60/80 temp pattern.

4. at some point after this week a taste of fall should dive southeast from Canada, just a matter of when.

Advertisements

9 Responses to “how the tides turn”

  1. mitchg Says:

    flash flooding may become an issue in lou area in the next hour or two, no warningd for counties covered on this site as of 7:45 pm ct.

  2. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    FLASH FLOOD WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    854 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LOUISVILLE…
    SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA…

    * UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT

    * AT 852 PM EDT…THE PUBLIC REPORTED ABOUT SIX INCHES OF WATER
    FLOWING OVER BROWNSBORO ROAD AT LINDSEY AVENUE. RAIN GAUGES ALONG
    THE OHIO RIVER HAVE ALSO INDICATED THAT OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS
    FALLEN IN THE PAST TWO HOURS SO FLASH FLOODING FROM THESE TRAINING
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AND AROUND THE LOUISVILLE METRO
    AREA.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    FAIRDALE…
    LOUISVILLE…
    LYNDON…
    OKOLONA…
    PLEASURE RIDGE PARK…

    ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF ARE POSSIBLE IN
    THE WARNED AREA AS HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVERHEAD AT THE
    MOMENT.

  3. mitchg Says:

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    518 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

    KYC067-220015-
    /O.NEW.KLMK.FA.Y.0079.090921T2118Z-090922T0015Z/
    /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    FAYETTE KY-
    518 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
    FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEXINGTON…

    * UNTIL 815 PM EDT

    * AT 515 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT CLOSE TO AN INCH OF
    RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR FROM TRAINING SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
    LEXINGTON METRO AREA.

    MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
    METRO. SO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.

  4. mitchg Says:

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    FLASH FLOOD WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    444 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    CENTRAL MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 745 PM EDT

    * AT 445 PM EDT…LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED WATER FLOWING OVER
    A BRIDGE ON SHORTLINE PIKE NEAR LEBANON WHICH NEARLY SWEPT A CAR
    AWAY.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    LEBANON…

    ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
    THE WARNED AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

  5. mitchg Says:

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    453 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

    KYC183-212345-
    /O.NEW.KLMK.FA.Y.0078.090921T2053Z-090921T2345Z/
    /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    OHIO KY-
    353 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
    SOUTHERN OHIO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 645 PM CDT

    * AT 350 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
    HAD FALLEN OVER SOUTHERN OHIO COUNTY…MAINLY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
    ROCKPORT INCLUDING LEWIS CREEK…FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. MORE
    THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE SAME AREAS…WHERE AN ADDITIONAL
    INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS IN THE WARNED AREA.
    THIS COULD CAUSE RISES OF CREEKS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
    AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

  6. mitchg Says:

    FLASH FLOOD WARNING
    KYC069-220145-
    /O.NEW.KJKL.FF.W.0062.090921T2142Z-090922T0145Z/
    /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

    BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    FLASH FLOOD WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
    542 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

    * UNTIL 945 PM EDT

    * AT 535 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    THAT AS MUCH OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN THE PAST
    HOUR OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF
    DALESBURG AND MOUNT CARMEL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL
    RATES OF UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IS FALLING FROM A
    THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF EWING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS HEAVY
    ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS…DITCHES…AND
    STREAMS.

    * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AREAS IN
    THE VICINITY OF PLEASUREVILLE…DALESBURG…FOXPORT AND MOUNT
    CARMEL. SOME AFFECTED BASINS INCLUDE…BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE
    NORTH FORK OF THE LICKING RIVER…JOHNSON CREEK AND LOGAN RUN.

    THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS BEING CAUSED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN
    FALLING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

  7. mitchg Says:

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    617 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

    KYC213-227-220115-
    /O.NEW.KLMK.FA.Y.0080.090921T2217Z-090922T0115Z/
    /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
    517 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
    NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOWLING GREEN…

    * UNTIL 815 PM CDT

    * AT 514 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT OVER ONE
    INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR OVER FAR NORTHEAST SIMPSON
    COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY FROM A SLOW-MOVING…TRAINING
    THUNDERSTORM. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA COULD TRAIN OVER THIS
    SAME LOCATION…CAUSING RISES OF CREEKS AND PONDING OF WATER ON
    ROADWAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS AFFECTED THE TOWNS OF
    PLANO…BOYCE…GOLD CITY AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

    ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
    THE WARNED AREA.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
    CREEKS AND STREAMS…URBAN AREAS…UNDERPASSES AND OTHER LOW LYING
    SPOTS.

    DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
    ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
    SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

  8. mitchg Says:

    no post for tuesday check out my twitter updates.

    i do have a quick update

    1. squall line from stl thorugh arkansas may push into far western sections of the state toward dawn

    2. I’m more concerned about outflow boundries from this actvity to produce more storms tommorow

  9. mitchg Says:

    flood adv for edmonson,butler,grayson and warren counties this includes bowling green.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: