weekend trending wetter

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1. the dry side of the forecast for most of us north of  a mammoth cave to science hill line will be this week and not the weekend has i originally thought. The ridge over the great lakes looks to hold off the majority of rain through friday now by the looks of the models. This leaves only far southern ky ( bwg and somerset) in the threat to periods of showers and storms to continue through the week due to the tropical low. our temp pattern will stay the same 60-80 range.

2. the majority of the data trends show this tropical low to move into the lower ohio valley for the weekend now and bring scattered showers and storms for all of us. the nam is the most optimistic keeping the best chances still in the south, the gfs takes the low up the apps with decent storm coverage for all of us and the cmc takes this feature up 1-65 with widespread showers and storms.

CMC

GFS sun am

3. are you tired of the 60-80 rule for temps each day well that’s about to change for next week.

gfs_pcp_240l

that is a couple of gfs snapshots for next week with our first real taste of fall which is showing up on both the gfs and euro models now really well. As usual i will enforce my policy of no mos forecasting for temps in this type of pattern. To the novice weather person ( it’s alright if you are and i hope this blog will inspire you to learn more about meteorology!) it may look like temps will fall way below 32 and snow is on the way by next friday. That is not the case these are 850 mb temp maps, my rule of thumb is to add 10*C to these to get a approximate surface temp then covert to F.

– that would give a high only in the upper 40’s by next friday if correct. brr! lows could be under 40, let’s give the thickness values a look another rule fo thumb heading into winter under 540 a must for any frozen precip.

gfs_slp_240l

uh-oh we’re under 540! one could make the argument for a low of 38 or 39 and a flurrie mixing in based on this info on the 12z run.

a look at the next run is not as cold which means were a long way from snow chances but fall is coming next week. for now it time to think nam for a drier weekend.

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