winter update: old farmers almanac forecast is out

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– no el-nino or la-nina

– rapid changes in temp patterns but average below normal

– near normal snow

my thoughts:  The big thing that caught my eye was no el-nino. The sst values clearly show we are already at a week el-nino. However, this is another group straying away from the idea of a super nino lead by the cfs model.  I would think off hand this would have more of an impact in the south where they have mild and el-nino winters are cool there. Overall i like there ideas and quite a few of there thoughts match up with mine. Even though this is often laughed at in the field, it has done quite well in predicting several events such as an early snow in 2003. Again for those of you new to the seasonal forecasting a strong el-nino would not be favorable for cold and snow throughout the winter while no el-nino would give us the best chance of a snowy winter.

for more updates on the upcoming winter you can look every few days at the cfs runs on the link. Also, NOAA’s weekly report on the nino status comes out every monday.

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